000 AGXX40 KNHC 070739 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 339 AM EDT THU APR 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... CLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF HAS BECOME ILL DEFINED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...WITH A WEAK AND NONDESCRIPT WARM FRONT NOW LIFTING N OF 26N ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF...AND REMNANTS OF OLD BOUNDARY ALSO DRIFTING NW AWAY FROM YUCATAN PENINSULA. A 0350Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED SE TO S WINDS AROUND 15 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF WITH SEAS ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AT 4-5 FT. HIGH PRES WILL OPEN UP FULLY ACROSS THE BASIN TODAY TO YIELD SE TO S WINDS GULF WIDE...AND INCREASE TO 20 KT ACROSS THE TEXAS NEAR AND OFFSHORE WATERS AND 15-20 KT ELSEWHERE W OF 90W...THEN EXPAND TO 20 KT W OF 90W FRI WITH AREAS TO 25 KT ACROSS THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. SEAS TO BUILD TO 6 FT THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS AND THEN 6-7 FT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE TO PERSIST FROM SW N ATLC WWD INTO NRN GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT TO MAINTAIN THIS GENERAL PATTERN BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM SINKS INTO NW GULF EARLY MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SWEEP EWD ACROSS N PORTIONS OF SW N ATLC E OF 65W AND ACTING TO WEAKEN CENTRAL ATLC HIGH AND ASSOCIATED RIDGING INTO THE CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC. A 1023 HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC OFF THE SC COAST AND WILL SLIDE SLOWLY E-SE AND WEAKEN NEXT 24 HOURS. FRESH TRADES WERE DEPICTED BY RECENT SCAT PASSES ACROSS THE SRN CARIB S OF 14N AND SUGGESTED S OF 13N ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEXT 24 HOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH ACROSS THE CARIB AND MODEST RIDGE REMAINS ESTABLISHED WWD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. TAIL END OF OLD FRONT IN THE FORM OF A SHEAR LINE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT SW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND INTO THE NE CARIB ISLANDS TO YIELD SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WITH GFS INDICATING A MODEST CONVERGENCE LINE ACROSS THE CENTRAL LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT. HIGH TO SHIFT SUFFICIENTLY SE BY LATE FRI TO ENHANCE FLOW THROUGH WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN GULF OF HONDURAS TO AROUND 20 KT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT FRONT MOVING TO NW GULF OF MEXICO EARLY MON WILL INDUCE E TO SE WINDS ACROSS THE NW CARIB SUN. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E AND OUT OF AREA ACROSS NRN LATS...WHILE SW TAIL HAS BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS. HIGH MENTIONED ABOVE OFF OF SC WILL SHIFT E-SE AND AID IN ALIGNING FRONT MORE E TO W THIS MORNING...THEN PORTIONS BETWEEN 75W AND 67W WILL DRIFT NWD THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING WELL E OF THE AREA YIELDING SELY FLOW IN THIS REGION. MODERATE ELY FLOW S OF 27N THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BE FORCED S AS RIDGE SHIFTS S TO 28N BY SAT MORNING AND THEN WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY SUN AS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW SINK S INTO N PORTIONS OF THE AREA. GLOBAL MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO... EXCEPT FOR ECMWF...WHICH IS MUCH FURTHER S WITH LOW AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THIS SCENARIO ATTM. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING