000 AGXX40 KNHC 040759 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT MON APR 04 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGING EXTENDS WWD ACROSS BASIN FROM FROM 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND GEORGIA COAST...AND INDUCING 20 KT SLY FLOW ACROSS FAR NW WATERS...WITH OIL PLATFORMS FROM OFFSHORE OF LOUISIANA TO TEXAS REPORTING WINDS TO 25 KT. THIS SLY FLOW ACROSS NRN GULF EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20-25 KT THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEGINNING TO VEER S TO SW AND DIMINISHING TO AROUND 20 KT...AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GLOBAL MODELS STILL INDICATING SOME MODEST TIMING AND ALIGNMENT DIFFERENCES...BUT ARE COMING IN CLOSER AGREEMENT IN RECENT RUNS. GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTEST AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN FRONTAL POSITION TO MORE OF A CONSENSUS. FRONT EXPECTED TOP MOVE OFF TEXAS COAST AROUND 21Z AND REACH FROM NEAR VERMILION BAY TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE BY 00Z...WITH A SQUALL LINE LIKELY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFS ENSEMBLE AND SREF STILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE MODEST CHANCES OF GALES IMMEDIATELY BEHIND FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE NW GULF WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN ALONG THE LOWER MEXICAN COAST AS FRONT PUSHES INTO PORTIONS OF BAY OF CAMPECHE. WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST OF 25-30 KT BLAST OF NLY WINDS BEHIND FRONT WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TUE MORNING BEFORE WINDS VEER MORE NNE AND BEGIN TO DIMINISH. GALES ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST IN WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TUE...AND SUGGESTED BY GUIDANCE TO BE CONFINED TO A VERY SMALL AREA S OF 21N. FRONT EXPECTED FROM FLORIDA BIG BEND TO WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z TUE THEN FROM NEAR NAPLES TO OFFSHORE OF THE NW COAST OF YUCATAN 00Z WED THEN DISSIPATING ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA OR THE UPPER KEYS BY 00Z THU. WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TUE NIGHT AS HIGH SHIFTS E BEHIND ADVANCING FRONT...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS WED BEFORE INCREASING TO AROUND 20 KT WED NIGHT AND THU ACROSS W PORTIONS...THEN LIGHT UP TO 20-25 KT ACROSS MOST OF AREA W OF 90W FRI MORNING. THIS GENERAL SCENARIO WILL PREVAIL WITH MODEST FLUCTUATIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TRADES CONTINUE TO BE CONFINED RELATIVELY FAR S...BELOW 15N ACROSS THE CARIB THIS MORNING BUT WILL EXPAND BY AFTERNOON AS HIGH ACROSS W ATLC STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY AND SHIFTS SLOWLY E... WITH BROAD ZONE OF 20 KT TRADES EXPANDING INTO TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS LATE TUE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS HIGH PASSES DUE N OF THE AREA. WINDS ARE ALREADY SE IN EXTREME NW CARIB AND BLOWING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...AND SHOULD CONTINUE AT 15-20 KT THERE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE FRONT PUSHES INTO THE NW GULF AND GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS WILL PULSE UP AND DOWN NEAR 30 KT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. AS GULF OF MEXICO FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS FLORIDA AND SW N ATLC WEARS TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE CARIB. A MODEST ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH HIGH CENTERED W TO SW OF BERMUDA WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH ELY TRADES ACROSS THE AREA THU THROUGH SAT. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A PAIR OF WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES EXTEND SW INTO E AND SE PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH THE LEADING BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM 23N65W TO THE SE BAHAMAS. AS THE W ATLC HIGH SHIFT E TODAY...WINDS TO THE SW AND W OF THE HIGH WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT AND VEER SE TO S...PUMPING UP SEAS ACROSS FAR NW PORTIONS TO 7-10 FT BY TUE MORNING. FRONT EXPECTED TO REACH THE GEORGIA COAST THROUGH BIG BEND REGION BY 12Z TUE THEN 31N75W TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BY 00Z WED. SW PORTION OF FRONT EXPECTED TO BECOME RELATIVELY ILL DEFINES THEREAFTER AS IT DRIFTS S AND SE ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE NW BAHAMAS. WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL VEER RAPIDLY AND RETURN TO LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING