000 AGXX40 KNHC 031806 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SUN APR 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGING EXTENDS FROM 1022 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE GEORGIA ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE THROUGH 27N88W TO GALVESTON BAY TEXAS. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT 10-15 KT DOMINATES THE GULF WITH MAINLY 2-4 FT SEAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW AND RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE GULF EXCEPT 20-25 KT NW PORTIONS. WINDS SLACKEN A BIT AS THEY VEER TO THE S-SW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE EARLY MON EVENING REACHING FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/ MEXICO BORDER BY 00 UTC TUE...THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY TUE MORNING. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SOLID 25-30 KT NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A FEW GALE FORCE PIXELS CONFINED TO THE COASTAL WATERS AREA (INSIDE 60 NM). THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES A 30-40 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES...DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM 24 HOURS AGO WHILE THE SREF PROGS ONLY A 10-20 PERCENT CHANCE. HAVE ELECTED TO KEEP 25-30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WORDING AS BELIEVE THAT ANY GALE FORCE WINDS WILL BE BRIEF AND MAY BE CONFINED TO COASTAL WATERS AREAS (REFER TO LOCAL NWS OFFICES FOR INSIDE 60 NM). THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE AS IT PROPAGATES SE EXTENDING FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN COAST WED EVENING WITH NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT BY THAT TIME. HIGH PRES REBUILDS JUST NE OF THE AREA WED AND THU WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE GULF BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A PAIR OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC REGION HAS WEAKENED THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE WITH A WEAK GRADIENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED THAT 20-25 KT TRADES ARE CONFINED TO S OF 15N IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONTS N OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND AS A RESULT WILL ALLOW FOR 20 KT TRADES TO INCREASE AND EXPAND TO ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CARIBBEAN (EXCEPT NEAR LEE OF CUBA) AND ALL OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY MON. WINDS WILL VEER TO SELY IN THE NW PORTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL APPROACH THE AREA BUT STALL JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY WED. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY TO BUILD TO 14 FT MON THROUGH TUE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 10 FT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN MIXED E AND NW SWELL. TRADES WILL DIMINISH ON THU INTO THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE ATLC HIGH RELAXES AND SHIFT NE OF THE AREA. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A PAIR OF WEAKENING COLD FRONTS IS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE LEADING ONE REACHING FROM 31N55W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE TRAILING FRONT STRETCHES FROM 31N61W THROUGH 28N72W TO BETWEEN WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA AND GRAND BAHAMA WITH THE FRONT NICELY INDICATED BY MELBOURNE FLORIDA WSR-88D RADAR. A RECENT WINDSAT PASS CAPTURED 20-25 KT W-NW WINDS BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT OVER THE NE PORTION...WITH 20-25 KT SW WINDS WITHIN 60-90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SHIP NEAR 30N62W RECENTLY REPORTED 13 FT SEAS IN NW SWELL AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BUILD TO UP TO 17 FT BY MON JUST E OF THE AREA ALONG 31N AS THE FRONTS MERGE AND CONTINUE EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION. HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON CLIPPING THE NE PORTION OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND MON. NE-E 20 KT WINDS WILL OCCUR S OF 26N AND N OF CUBA AND HISPANIOLA AS THE HIGH TIGHTENS THE PRES GRADIENT. ALSO SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT E OF FLORIDA INCREASING TO 20-25 KT AND VEERING SWLY BY TUE MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NW PORTION AND REACH FROM 31N74W TO CAPE CANAVERAL TUE EVENING THEN WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING SHIFTING E OF THE AREA BY THU MORNING. THERE WILL BE AN INITIAL NW 20 KT SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF STREAM WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BY LATE WED THROUGH THU. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY