000 AGXX40 KNHC 021748 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT SAT APR 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK 1015 MB HIGH PRES IS LOCATED IN THE NE GULF NEAR 27N85W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. RETURN FLOW TO 15 KT IS ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF W OF 90W. A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX IS SWEEPING ACROSS THE NE GULF STATES MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED ACROSS THE ERN U.S. THIS SHORTWAVE HAS WEAKENED THE PRES GRADIENT AND WINDS HAVE BACKED TO A NW DIRECTION AT 5-10 KT IN THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AS INDICATED BY BUOY AND COASTAL OBS. HIGH PRES WILL DEVELOP E OF FLORIDA IN THE ATLC TONIGHT WITH 15 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ENCOMPASSING THE GULF BY SUN MORNING INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN 20 TO 25 KT SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE MON AFTERNOON STRETCHING FROM NEAR NEW ORLEANS TO BROWNSVILLE MON EVENING THEN RACING SE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TUE MORNING... STALLING OUT JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TUE EVENING. THE LATEST GFS REMAINS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN OTHER EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODELS. THE 12 UTC GFS ENSEMBLE HAS INCREASED THE PROBABILITIES OF GALE BEHIND THE FRONT TO 40-50 PERCENT DURING THE 06 UTC TUE TIME FRAME. GIVEN THE INCREASE IN PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE GALE WORDING IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES ALTHOUGH BEING 5TH PERIOD STILL HAVE TIME TO MONITOR TO SEE IF TRENDS CONTINUE UPWARD. AT THE VERY LEAST...A GOOD 20-30 KT SURGE OF NORTHERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE NW OVER THE SE U.S. STATES TUE NIGHT INTO WED SETTLING JUST NE OF FLORIDA IN THE ATLC LATE WED WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT DOMINATING THE GULF BY LATE WED NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGING NE OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO RETREAT INDUCING E-SE FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN AND NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AS A COLD FRONT MOVES BY JUST N OF CUBA. A RECENT WINDSAT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...HIGHEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND AN EARLIER SHIP OB NEAR 13N77W REPORTED 10 FT SEAS DOWNWIND OF THE STRONGER WINDS. MEANWHILE NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE IN THE SOUTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WITH 7-9 FT NE SWELLS. HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA SUN THROUGH MON RESULTING IN STRENGTHENING ELY TRADES SUN NIGHT. TRADES INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE BASIN ...WITH 20-25 KT IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS DURING THE EVENINGS/ NIGHTS AND ALSO IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...WITH HIGHEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS TO 14 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS AND INCREASING ELY FETCH WHILE THE LOWER-RES EUROPEAN WAVE MODEL CAPS SEAS AT 10 FT. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS N OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON AND LATE MON 20 KT TRADES WILL EXPAND TO ACROSS THE BASIN. MERGING NW SWELL AND E-NE TRADE SWELL WILL COMBINE MON NIGHT AND TUE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO RAISE SEAS TO 10 FT. WINDS WILL VEER MORE TO THE SE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN LATE MON AHEAD OF THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WHICH WILL STALL N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL LATE TUE. FRESH TRADES WILL BECOME SQUASHED TO S OF 15N LATE TUE AND WED AS THE FRONT MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA BEFORE STALLING AND DISSIPATING. SOUTHWEST N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT REACHES FROM 31N62W TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. A REINFORCING SURFACE TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE AREA FROM 31N77W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT REMAINING MAINLY N OF THE AREA. W-NW 20-25 KT WINDS WERE CAPTURED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT BY A RECENT WINDSAT PASS WHILE SHIP AND BUOY OBS NE OF FLORIDA BEHIND THE TROUGH SHOW 15-20 KT NW WINDS THERE. NW SWELLS TO 13 FT ARE SKIRTING ALONG 31N WITH HIGHER SEAS N OF THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL PUSH E OF THE AREA BY SUN MORNING WHILE THE TROUGH STRETCHES FROM 31N65W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY SUNRISE SUN WITH 20-30 KT WINDS AND SWELLS BUILDING TO 15 FT ALONG THE BORDER BEHIND THE TROUGH. THE TROUGH SHIFTS E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE CAROLINAS INDUCING NE-E 20 KT FLOW S OF 25N AND N OF HISPANIOLA AND CUBA. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT E OF THE AREA LATE MON ALLOWING FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO INCREASE TO 20 KT OVER W PORTIONS THEN FURTHER INCREASING TO 20-25 KT LATE MON NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE U.S. STATES. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N75W TO MELBOURNE FLORIDA TUE AFTERNOON WITH A BRIEF 20-25 KT NORTHERLY SURGE BEHIND IT...THEN FROM E OF BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS WED MORNING MOVING NE OF THE AREA LATE WED WITH HIGH PRES RETURNING FROM THE NW. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY