000 AGXX40 KNHC 020730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SAT APR 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... REMNANTS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAVE STALLED ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA WWD TO A CYCLONIC SWIRL N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23.5N88W...WITH BOUNDARY NOW JUST A FINE LINE OF STRATOCU. 1015 MB HIGH ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF WITH RETURN FLOW TO 15 KT ALREADY ESTABLISHED W OF 90W. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED SPEED MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH BASE OF MEAN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS ERN U.S. AND SWEEP ACROSS THE N GULF STATES...ACTING TO WEAKEN THE PRES GRADIENT AND MODELS RESPOND BY MOVING A SURFACE HIGH ACROSS THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY...AND BACKING WINDS TO A MORE E TO ESE DIRECTION AROUND 10 KT ACROSS N AND NW SECTIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT E INTO THE W ATLC NEXT 24 HOURS AND STRENGTHEN. SE RETURN FLOW TO RE-ESTABLISH AROUND 15 KT BY THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KT SUN AND THEN 20 TO 25 KT SUN NIGHT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS VEER SLY 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ENTIRE BASIN MON AS FRONT NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...WITH FRONT PUSHING INTO THE NW GULF MON EVENING. 00Z RUN OF GFS NOW SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN OTHER EUROPEAN GLOBAL MODELS...WITH THIS GFS RUN NOW BACKING OFF ANY SUGGESTION OF GALES...WHILE SREF SHOWING PROBS AS HIGH AS 20% OFF THE TEXAS COAST AND THEN IN FAR WRN BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON. UKMET AND ECMWF BOTH STILL SUGGESTING CHANCE FOR GALES BEHIND FRONT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO CONFIRM THIS BEFORE RAISING GALES BEHIND FRONT. SW N ATLC... UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LIFTING OUT TO THE NE WHILE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO SHIFT GRADUALLY E. THIS PATTERN IS DRAGGING FRONT EWD ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE AREA WHILE THE SW TAIL OF FRONT CONTINUES TO BE STRUNG OUT AND WEAKEN FURTHER...NOW ACROSS ELEUTHERA AND ANDROS ISLANDS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS. WLY WINDS 25-30 KT WERE INDICATED BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 30N BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES...WITH MINIMAL GALES AT 33N. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SWLY FLOW OF 20 KT PREVAILS N OF 26N. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM 30N60W TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY 00Z THIS EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE OVER LOCAL WATERS BY SAT AFTERNOON AS PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN CONTINUES TO MOVE THIS BOUNDARY EWD AND OUT OF AREA. SUBTLE SHORTWAVE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA LATE TODAY AND INDUCE A SECONDARY COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BRUSH EWD ALONG N PORTIONS TONIGHT AND SUN...WITH GALES JUST N OF THE AREA AND WLY WINDS TO 30 KT ACROSS N PORTIONS N OF 30N. HIGH PRES WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE W ATLC SUN WITH ELY WINDS AROUND 20 KT DEVELOPING TO THE S OF THE HIGH S OF 24-25N LATE SUN AND SUN NIGHT BECOMING SE ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ADJACENT ATLC COASTAL WATERS. AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER E MON FLOW TO BECOME MORE SLY W OF 75W THEN INCREASE TO 20-25 KT MON NIGHT N OF 25N AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES SC AND GA COASTS. FRONT TO MOVE OFF GA AND NE FLORIDA COAST TUE AND REACH NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL BY 00Z WED. ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS ATLC WATERS. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE RETREATING EWD AND INDUCING ESE FLOW NEAR 15 KT ACROSS THE NE CARIB...WEAK WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN W OF 76W...AND FRESH ELY TRADES CONFINED TO GENERALLY S OF 14N. ELY TRADES TO RETURN AND STRENGTHEN LATE SUN AS HIGH MOVES INTO W ATLC AND TIGHTENS GRADIENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 25-30 KT OFF COLOMBIA AND 20 KT TRADES EXPANDING ACROSS BASIN S OF 17N E OF 80W. AS HIGH SHIFTS N OF TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS MON AND MON NIGHT 20 KT TRADES WILL EXPAND THERE TO 19N...WHILE WINDS VEER SE 15-20 KT ACROSS NW CARIB AHEAD OF GULF OF MEXICO FRONT. FRESH TRADES THEN BECOME SQUASHED S OF 15N TUE AND WED AS FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH GULF AND INTO SW N ATLC. MERGING NW SWELL AND ENE TRADE SWELL WILL COMBINE MON NIGHT AND TUE ACROSS TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TO RAISE SEAS TO 8-9 FT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING