000 AGXX40 KNHC 010725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 324 AM EDT FRI APR 01 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... MID TO UPPER LEVEL SPEED MAX FUELING YDAS SEVERE WX ACROSS FLORIDA HAS LIFTED OUT TO THE NE WHILE MEAN UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINS ACROSS ALABAMA AND S INTO N GULF AND IS FORECAST TO SWEEP ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE NE GULF TODAY. ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA W-SW INTO CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 23N91W WHERE IT WAS WASHING OUT. BUOYS ACROSS E GULF WERE STILL SHOWING 6-7 FT AT 06Z AND WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS MORNING AS WINDS VEER. BOUNDARY E OF 87W WILL MOVE SE THROUGH S FLORIDA TDA AND INTO STRAITS OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING WITH ACTIVE WEATHER LIKELY AHEAD OF FRONT THROUGH SUNSET. FRONT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS E ACROSS NRN GULF... ALLOWING FOR SE RETURN FLOW TO SET UP BY SAT EVENING ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND THEN INCREASE SUN AND SUN NIGHT TO NEAR 20 KT NW PORTION...SPREADING E ACROSS ENTIRE GULF MON AND TUE WITH 20 TO 25 KT OVER MOST WATERS MON IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING OFF TEXAS COAST MON EVENING. ALTHOUGH IT IS LATE IN THE SEASON FOR POST FRONTAL GALES...MODELS SUGGEST GALES BLASTING OFF TEXAS COAST INITIALLY BEHIND FRONT MON NIGHT AND THEN SMALL AREA OF NEAR GALES IN USUAL SPOTS ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS WHERE TERRAIN INFLUENCES PREVAIL. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT HAS MOVED E OF NE FLORIDA AND EXTENDS SW TO NEAR N COAST OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE WITH A NEW CONVERGENCE LINE/SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF IT ACROSS NW BAHAMAS TO UPPER KEYS. BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SE AS MENTIONED ABOVE AS SUPPORTING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NE GULF SWEEPS ACROSS THE SUNSHINE STATE TODAY. A 0234Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SMALL AREA OF GALES WELL AHEAD OF THE FRONT ALONG 30N AND REMOVED FROM DEEP CONVECTION ALONG SQUALL LINE. THIS SHOULD HAVE LIFTED OUT TO THE NE BY NOW AND SEEMS USELESS TO ISSUE A GALE FOR 3 HOURS AFTER THE FACT...AND WILL THUS TAKE IT AS A MISSED WARNING. FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM 31N74W TO NEAR PALM BEACH BY 12Z AND THEN MORE E TO W ALIGNED AND INTO THE STRAITS BY 06Z TONITE. ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS SHIFTING SLOWLY E AND WILL CONTINUE TO YIELD 20-25 KT OF S TO SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH 25-30 KT EXPECTED E OF FRONT AND N OF 30N. A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E AND SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT. THE SECOND DRY FRONT WILL MERGE WITH THE INITIAL FRONT SUN ALONG 31N56W TO 24N65W TO 20N73W. THE MERGED BOUNDARY WILL WASH OUT AS A SHEAR LINE FROM 25N55W TO NEAR TURKS AND CAICOS MON. A POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES CENTER WILL MOVE OFF N FL COAST SUN AND SHIFT ENE PASSING BERMUDA EARLY TUE. SLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE AROUND PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH MON AND TUE IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONT MOVING OFF GA COAST TUE EVENING. CARIBBEAN AND TROP N ATLC W OF 55W... RETREATING ATLC HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE E TO ESE TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIB E OF 75W...WITH STRONGEST ELY TRADES TO 25 KT CENTERED A BIT E OF NORMAL AND ALONG 70W PER A 0230Z ASCAT PASS. SLY FLOW ACROSS THE NW CARIB HAS DIMINISHED TO 10-15 KT AND WILL WEAKEN FURTHER FAR NW PORTIONS AS WEAK FRONTAL REMNANTS STALLS THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND THEN WASHES OUT SAT. TRADES ACROSS THE CARIB WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LOCATION AND SPEEDS SAT NIGHT THOUGH SUN AS HIGH PRES SLIDES E ACROSS THE GULF OF MEX BEHIND FRONT. WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO 30 KT ALONG THE COLOMBIAN COAST BY SUN AFTERNOON AND 20 KT ACROSS TROPICAL ATLC S OF 14N. AS NEXT FRONT APPROACHES TEXAS MON...WINDS WILL GAIN SHIFT SE ACROSS NW CARIB. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE W ATLC MON AND MON NIGHT AND ACT TO TIGHTEN PRES GRADIENT E OF 80W FOR FRESH TO STRONG FLOW MON AND TUE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING