000 AGXX40 KNHC 221851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE MAR 22 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 28N85W WITH A RIDGE W TO THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. THE RIDGE CONTROLS THE WEATHER REGIME FOR THE TIME BEING WITH BUOYS SHOWING SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT S OF THE RIDGE AXIS AND TO THE W OF 89W...AND SE-S WINDS 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT VARIABLE 5-10 KT NEAR AND N OF THE HIGH CENTER AND E 15-20 KT S OF 24N BETWEEN WESTERN CUBA AND 92W. SEAS ARE PRESENTLY IN THE 3-5 FT RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WHERE BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W IS REPORTING A COMBINED SEA HEIGHT OF 6-7 FT. THE HIGH CENTER IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE ON WED AS A NEW RIDGE SETS UP ALONG 27N WED AND WED NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS S TO ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS ON THU AND WEAKENS THE RIDGE. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE WILL MOVE E AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA THU NIGHT AND FRI...WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION LIFTS N AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NW SECTION THU AND TO OVER NE TEXAS THU NIGHT AND FRI. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING AND INTENSIFYING LOW PRES OVER THE PLAINS STATES. THE RESULTING TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL MATERIALIZE SE-S WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WATERS ...AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PORTION FRI THROUGH SAT. THESE WINDS THEN BEGIN TO DIMINISH OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION ON SUN AS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. SE-S OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO PULSATE OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND GULF AND FAR SE WATERS OF THE SW GULF INCLUDING THE WATERS NEAR THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18 UTC SHOWS A 1020 MB HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE TO E OF THE AREA. THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH DRAPED ALONG THE FAR SE WATERS IS RESULTING IN NE WINDS OF 20 KT AS NOTED BY SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS AND BY A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM JUST PAST 15 UTC THIS MORNING. MAX SEAS ARE UP TO 9 AND 10 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS AND S OF ABOUT 21N. WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS ARE SW-W 15-20 KT EXCEPT N OF 29N E OF 75W 20-25 KT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO APPROACHING MID LATITUDE BROAD LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE IN THE 6-8 FT RANGE N OF 28N. THE HIGH AND RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SLIDE S AND WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR THE GRADIENT TO RELAX OVER THE NW PORTION. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NW PORTION THU AND THU NIGHT...AND TO JUST NE OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. SW WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE 30 KT OVER THE FAR NE WATERS TONIGHT INTO WED. A RIDGE WILL BRIEFLY EXTEND ALONG 25N WED AND WED NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING E OF THE AREA THU. ONCE THE COLD FRONT EXITS THE AREA EARLY FRI...A RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NEAR 31N70W TO S FLORIDA SAT AND ROUGHLY ALONG 26N BY SUN WITH SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO ITS N AND E-SE WINDS 15-20 KT TO ITS S AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT WILL EXIST ELSEWHERE S OF THE RIDGE...AND S-SW 10 KT FROM 25N-27N BY SUN. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES TO THE N OF THE AREA AND LOW PRES OVER COLOMBIA IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO STRONG NE TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 68W-75W...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AS USUAL ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS THERE WERE INDICATED BY SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING TO BE UP TO 10 FT. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...THEN A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY FRI AS THE ATLC RIDGE TO THE N WEAKENS. TRADES THEN INCREASE AND EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N. SE WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TO 20 KT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AS GULF OF MEXICO SE-S RETURN FLOW INCREASES. MAX SEAS OF UP TO 9 OR 10 FT SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE