000 AGXX40 KNHC 170638 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 238 AM EDT THU MAR 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK FRONTAL TROUGH IS NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE NE GULF AND WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. A 0244Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED 10-15 KT WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. MEANWHILE 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED JUST S OF MOBILE ALABAMA NEAR 29N87W. THIS HIGH WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY E TODAY TO JUST S OF PANAMA CITY BEACH FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON. E-SE 10-15 KT RETURN FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST WHERE NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA/JUST N OF THE W COAST OF CUBA THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADES FORCED BY A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN 1035 MB HIGH PRES WELL N-NE OF THE BASIN AND DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MON. WINDS WILL BE THE STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE A 0240Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25-30 KT WINDS...AND ALSO IN AND NEAR THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES. A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN ZFDF4 RECENTLY REPORTED 10 FT SEAS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND SIMILAR SEAS ARE OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 13 FT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TONIGHT AND FRI AS THE NE FETCH LENGTHENS. MEANWHILE...NE-E 10-15 KT TRADES AND 5-7 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WILL DOMINATE THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... 1035 MB HIGH PRES LOCATED WELL NE OF THE AREA RIDGES IN TO THE NORTHERN WATERS THROUGH 31N68W TO NEAR JUPITER FLORIDA. THE RIDGE WILL BACK OFF TO THE NE AS A COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE AREA MOVES E. AS OF 06Z...THE COLD FRONT NOW REACHES FROM NEAR 31N79W TO DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WITH EARLIER VAD WIND PROFILE DATA AT JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA INDICATING A WINDSHIFT AT THE SURFACE FROM THE SW TO N BEGINNING AROUND 01Z. CONVECTION HAS QUICKLY BLOSSOMED WITHIN 90-120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 30N...WITH LIGHTNING DATA INDICATING APPROXIMATELY 100 STRIKES OCCURRING DURING THE PAST 5 MINUTES. THE MAIN ACTIVITY AND PUSH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN N OF OUR AREA WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO 28N70W THIS EVENING...MOVING E OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI. HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY QUICKLY SURGES IN BEHIND THE FRONT BECOMING ESTABLISHED ALONG 29N FRI NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUN. THE HIGH WEAKENS ON SUN AFTERNOON AS A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS S OF 31N. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A WEAKER FRONT WITH IT NOW EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE NE PORTION MON WHERE IT WILL DEGENERATE IN TO A FRONTAL TROUGH AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS FROM THE W ALONG 29N BY LATE MON. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY