000 AGXX40 KNHC 160630 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED MAR 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NE GULF WILL LOSE ALL FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT APPROACHES THE W COAST OF FLORIDA LATER TODAY. A 0306Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED A NEW SURFACE HIGH HAD FORMED JUST W OF TAMPA BAY NEAR 27N83W WITH WEAK RIDGING W TO NEAR 26N87W. THIS HIGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MOVING INTO THE N CENTRAL WATERS BY THU MORNING...DRIFTING INTO THE NE GULF FRI WITH SE RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS ARE EXPECTED EVERY EVENING TO JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST AND A 0304Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED THESE WINDS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE COAST. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO INCREASE IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA REACHING 20-25 KT AND BUILDING TO 8 FT BY LATE SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER NW SOUTH AMERICAN INCREASES. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN AND NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE WERE CAPTURED BY A 0122Z ASCAT PASS AND SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING IN AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 0302Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 180-240 NM OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. ELSEWHERE NE 15 KT TRADES PREVAIL. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TO 25-30 KT BY EARLY THU WHICH WILL BUILD SEAS TO 12-13 FT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AS INDICATED BY THE 00Z HI-RES WAVEWATCH MODEL RUN. TRADES WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN...EXCEPT IN THE E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC. DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER INTERIOR COLOMBIA AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL BE THE CAUSE OF THE MORE TURBULENT CONDITIONS. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A 0126Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED HIGH PRES NEAR 31N72W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW TO NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS PREVAIL NEAR THE RIDGE WITH NE 10-15 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT OVER THE SE PORTION AND TO 25 KT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THIS HIGH AND RIDGE WILL RETREAT TO THE NE LATER TODAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE W. THE FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO GRAND BAHAMA THU MORNING...DISSIPATING OVER THE NE PORTION BY FRI MORNING AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN FROM THE NW. THE HIGH DROPS SE INTO THE AREA SETTLING ALONG 29/30N LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE A BACK-DOOR COLD FRONT BREACHING THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE AREA LATE SAT WITH NE-E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT ACROSS THE WATERS BEHIND IT BY LATE SUN. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY