000 AGXX40 KNHC 140625 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT MON MAR 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1025 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS PARKED IN THE FAR NE GULF WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW-W TO NEAR THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 2 FT OR LESS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER WITH E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS AND 3-5 FT SEAS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF. THE EXCEPTION IS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND FAR W GULF WHERE 15-20 KT SE WINDS ARE PRESENT. THE HIGH CENTER WILL WEAKEN WHILE HOLDING NEARLY STEADY THROUGH TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS EARLY TUE THEN WILL STALL AS IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NE AND N CENTRAL WATERS TUE NIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEPICT ONLY 10-15 KT N-NE WINDS IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGH PRES RESTRENGTHENS OVER THE NE GULF WED THROUGH FRI WITH A WEATHER PATTERN VERY SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT SITUATION RETURNING. OTHERWISE A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL FORM NEAR AND ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST EACH EVENING WITH NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS OCCURRING AS A RESULT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... IN THE CARIBBEAN...A RECENT 0204Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN AND NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND IN THE LEE OF E CUBA...AND SIMILAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE. A SHIP WITH CALL-SIGN ZCDF4 RECENTLY REPORTED 8 FT SEAS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. NE-E 20 KT WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AS CAPTURED BY THE SAME ASCAT PASS. ELSEWHERE NE-E 10-15 KT WINDS ARE PREVALENT. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A RATHER STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WED THROUGH FRI WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO NEAR 12 FT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES MISSED THE BASIN ALTHOUGH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REPORT NE 10-15 KT WINDS AND SEAS OF 6-8 FT IN NE SWELL WITH DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS OF 10-11 SECONDS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK ALTHOUGH TRADES MAY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS THE PRES GRADIENT JUST N-NE OF THE AREA TIGHTENS. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... LINGERING 7-9 FT NE SWELL OVER THE E PORTION WILL DECAY DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A REMNANT SHEAR LINE/AXIS REACHES FROM NEAR 28N63W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 0206Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 15-20 KT NE WINDS JUST W OF THE AXIS AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES TO BECOME LESS DEFINED. 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED NEAR 29N74W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ORIENTED FROM NEAR BERMUDA THROUGH THE HIGH CENTER TO THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT WINDS PREVAIL NEAR AND UNDER THE RIDGE WITH NE 10-15 KT FLOW ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT 15-20 KT NEAR THE COAST OF CUBA. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE OF THE AREA BY TUE AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NW. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COAST WED EVENING REACHING FROM NEAR 31N74W TO GRAND BAHAMA EARLY THU...QUICKLY MOVING E OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI AS HIGH PRES REBUILDS IN FROM THE CAROLINAS. 20 KT NE-E WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED S OF 23N FRI AS THE PRES GRADIENT IN THAT AREA TIGHTENS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY