000 AGXX40 KNHC 131908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EST SUN MAR 13 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1800 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A RIDGE EXTENDING 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED INLAND THE BIG BEND OF FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE W TO NE TEXAS. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF REVEAL GENERALLY LIGHT SE-S WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE A SLIGHTER STRONGER GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR E WINDS OF 10-15 KT...AND IN THE SW GULF ZONE WHERE ENHANCED SE FLOW OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING SE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT...WITH THE HIGHER END OF THE RANGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION. SEA STATE ANALYSIS FROM THROUGHOUT THE MORNING CONTINUED TO SHOW RATHER LOW SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE GULF...EXCEPT IN THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE NW ZONE WHERE A PERSISTENT SE-S WINDS OF 15-20 KT HAS KEPT SEAS ELEVATED TO 6 FT AS REPORTED BY BUOY 42020 AT 27N97W. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MONT...THEN SHIFT E OF THE GULF MON NIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT MODELS SUGGEST WILL APPROACH THE FAR NW GULF SECTION MON AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF UPPER SUPPORT BEHIND IT...SO IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL PERHAPS SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS MEXICO BORDER TUE MORNING. WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE GULF SECTION WILL BECOME S-SW 10 KT KT TUE...THEN SHIFT TO NW-N BEHIND THE FRONT. OVER THE EASTERN GULF SECTION WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 26N THROUGH WED AS THE FRONT SLOWLY DISSIPATES WHILE MOVING E ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND OVER FLORIDA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONLY AT 1 FT AT THE MOST IN THE NE GULF ON WED. BY WED NIGHT...A HIGH CENTER BECOMES SITUATED OVER THE FAR NE GULF WITH ITS INFLUENCES TO BE SEEN AS BRINGING BACK AN E-SE LIGHT WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRI. WAVEWATCH MODEL GUIDANCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SEAS WILL BE LOW DURING THE EARLY TO MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ASCAT DATA FROM 1456 UTC THIS MORNING SHOWED A SWATH OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS ROUNDING THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA SPREADING S TO NEAR 15N. SHIP "A8SF8" NEAR 17N71W JUST RECENTLY REPORTED SIMILAR WINDS. THE OTHER AREA OF SIGNIFICANT WINDS IS THAT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT INDUCED BY THE COLOMBIAN LOW AND ATLC HIGH PRES TO THE N CONTINUES TO INDUCE NE-E 20 KT WINDS THERE. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE REMAIN UNDER A MODERATE NE BREEZE. THE HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH FRI AND WEAKEN AS THE ABOVE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT GRADUALLY MOVES E. HOWEVER THE GRADIENT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA MAY INCREASE ENOUGH TO BRING THE WINDS UP TO 30 KT WED AND THU BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME ON FRI. THE MODERATE NE BREEZE ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BEGINNING THU IN RESPONSE TO THE PRES GRADIENT ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF THE ATLC HIGH TIGHTENING. ALTHOUGH THE N SWELLS ARE SLOWLY SUBSIDING ACROSS THIS ZONE...EXPECT ANOTHER BATH OF N SWELLS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SEAS UP TO 8 FT TO MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON THU...AND CONTINUE TO SPREAD S ON FRI. SW N ATLC... THE 1800 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW WHAT WAS THE FORMER COLD FRONT NOW DISSIPATING JUST SE OF THE ZONE. BUOYS 41047 NEAR 27.5N71W AND BUOY 41046 NEAR 24N71W ARE REPORTING N-NE WINDS OF 15 KT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON...WITH SEAS UP TO 7 FT IN A NE SWELL. ELSEWHERE WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO NE-E 10-15 KT...EXCEPT S OF 26N WHERE A LINGERING TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT IS ALLOWING FOR NE WINDS OF 20 KT BETWEEN THE SE BAHAMAS AND HAITI AND THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...AND N OF 27N W OF 73W WHERE WINDS ARE VARIABLE MOSTLY SW-W 5 KT. THE 1452 UTC ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING CAPTURED SOME OF THESE WINDS PRETTY WELL WHEN COMPARED TO GFS MODEL WIND GUIDANCE. THE PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS IS ALSO REVEALING THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRES IS RIDGING EASTWARD ROUGHLY ALONG 29N. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT TO N OF 31N BY MON NIGHT. NWP MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW PORTION WED...AND REACH FROM NEAR 31N74W TO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA BY THU MORNING. THE FRONT WILL MOST LIKELY WASH OUT BY LATE THU AS HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK IN FROM THE NW. MODELS ARE ALSO MORE IN AGREEMENT THAT WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED WITH EVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF NOW SHOWING LIGHT NLY FLOW FOR A SHORT WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT ON THU BEFORE IT VEERS AROUND TO THE N-E LATE THU...AND TO THE NE-E ON FRI. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE