000 AGXX40 KNHC 130703 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 303 AM EDT SUN MAR 13 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1025 MB HIGH PRES IS POSITIONED IN THE FAR NE GULF NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA WITH A RIDGE REACHING SW TO NEAR 24N98W. MODERATE TO FRESH SE RETURN FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF WATERS EXCEPT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER WHERE A 0226Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED LIGHT 5-10 KT WINDS. THIS HIGH WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MON EVENING WHILE WEAKENING AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER BY TUE MORNING THEN WILL DISSIPATE AS IT STALLS OUT OVER THE NE GULF WED AFTERNOON. HIGH PRES REFORMS IN THE NE GULF WED NIGHT WITH SE RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN BECOMING PREDOMINANT THROUGH THU. OTHERWISE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LOW-LEVEL JET SETTING UP ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST EACH EVENING. MEANWHILE SEAS WILL AVERAGE 3-5 FT OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE GULF EXCEPT FOR 1-3 FT NEAR THE HIGH CENTER. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... IN THE CARIBBEAN...MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADES ARE PREVALENT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE DOWNWIND OF THE MONA PASSAGE WHERE A 0224Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE-E 20-25 KT AND ALSO IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WHERE A SHIP RECENTLY REPORTED 25 KT NE WINDS. 20-25 KT WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO OCCUR NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA INCREASING TO 25-30 KT BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THESE CONDITIONS WILL NOT VARY MUCH THROUGH THU WITH SEAS OF 8 TO 10 FT POSSIBLE IN THE AREAS OF STRONGEST WINDS AND MAINLY 4 TO 7 FT ELSEWHERE. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A 0042Z ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE 10-15 KT WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN WITH 6-8 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 10-12 SECONDS. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON KEEPING THESE SAME CONDITIONS IN PLACE THROUGH THU. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NE DURING THE WEEK ALTHOUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF THE AREA. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N60W TO 27N63W WITH A SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THERE TO THE N COAST OF HAITI AS INDICATED BY RECENT ASCAT PASSES. THE SHEAR AXIS AND SOUTHERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE SUN THROUGH MON WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHES 55W MON WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH WED BEFORE GETTING NUDGED TO THE E BY HIGH PRES THAT WILL RIDGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE N. OTHERWISE...1025 MB HIGH PRES IS JUST N OF THE BAHAMAS WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 31N55W TO NEAR WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. 5-10 KT WINDS ARE PRESENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS WITH 10-15 KT ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT JUST W OF THE SHEAR AXIS WHERE 15-20 KT (GUSTS TO 25 KT) ARE OCCURRING AS REPORTED BY BUOY AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA. MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE AREA S OF 27N THROUGH WED WITH 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS N OF 27N. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SW IN THE NW PORTION WED AS A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE GEORGIA/N FLORIDA COASTS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N76W TO THE SPACE COAST OF FLORIDA LATE WED NIGHT THEN WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THU. SE RETURN FLOW RETURNS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NW PORTION BY LATE THU. MEANWHILE...LINGERING NE SWELL OF 8-11 FT SW OF BERMUDA WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO LESS THAN 8 FT BY MON NIGHT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY