000 AGXX40 KNHC 031924 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST THU MAR 03 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W TO A WEAK 1016 MB LOW PRES LOCATED NEAR 26N91W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND A 120 NM WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS RELATED TO THE FRONT. SURFACE DATA AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CURRENTLY INDICATE E TO SE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT TO THE N OF THE FRONT. BU0Y 42003 IN THE EASTERN GULF IS REPORTING COMBINED SEA HEIGHTS OF 8-9 FT. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE LIGHTER WITH AN E-SE DIRECTION. THE LOW PRES AND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY FRI AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SW ACROSS THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF PORTIONS AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH EARLY SAT. AS A RESULT...FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SAT WITH BUILDING SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT. THEN...THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER SAT AND SUN AS IT SLIDES E OF THE GULF. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF SAT AFTERNOON...AND REACH FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY LATE SAT...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN MORNING THEN WEAKEN AS IT EXITS THE AREA LATE ON SUN WITH WINDS AND SEAS DECREASING INTO MON. NEW COMPUTER MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THERE IS A GREATER CHANCE OF STRONGER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THAT COULD REACH GALE FORCE LATE SAT INTO SUN. AS SUCH...GALE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SW GULF. SW N ATLC... SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 27N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. HIGH PRES IS BUILDING S ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS TO THE NW OF THE FRONT ARE N-NE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-13 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND N SWELL. N OF 25N E OF FRONT...WINDS ARE SW 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN N SWELLS. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO A STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 25N65W TO 22N75W BY EARLY FRI AND INTO SAT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT RESULTING IN FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS THROUGH SAT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUN AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE COAST SUN NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO WESTERN CUBA BY LATE MON AFTERNOON. PRESENT MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHTER...NW TO N MOSTLY AT 10-15 KT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 15-20 KT SPEEDS BRIEFLY ALONG 30N/31N EARLY MON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL...WITH POSSIBLE SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL ALONG 31N JUST W OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... THE ABOVE MENTIONED COLD FRONT HAS CROSSED CUBA AND NOW EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 19N80W TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. A STRONG HIGH PRES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BUILD SW OVER THE WESTERN ATLC THROUGH SAT TIGHTENING THE PRES GRADIENT...AND RESULTING IN INCREASING NE WINDS TO 20-25 KT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE SOUTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT AND FRI. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE ATLANTIC PASSAGES BY LATE FRI. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR