000 AGXX40 KNHC 031040 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 540 AM EST THU MAR 03 2011 UPDATED COLD FRONT POSITIONS FOR MON UNDER SW N ATLC...SEAS UNDER CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC AND COLD FRONT DESCRIPTION FOR MON MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE WESTERN PORTION OF A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM NW CUBA NW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 27N91W WHILE STRONG HIGH PRES IS PRESENT TO THE N OF THE FRONT. A FAINTLY VISIBLE WEAK CYCLONIC SWIRL IS ON THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT. CURRENT AND RECENT RECENT BUOY OBSERVATIONS ALONG WITH OIL RIG REPORTING SITES HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED...AND ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING E-SE WINDS OF 15-20 KT N OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 86W-90W. WINDS ELSEWHERE ARE LIGHTER...E-SE IN DIRECTION IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE AREA S OF 25N BETWEEN 89W-94W WHERE WINDS ARE NE-E 10 KT. BUOYS THROUGHOUT THE GULF ARE REPORTING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT E OF 90W...AND 2-4 FT ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE HIGHER IN AND NEAR THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WHERE A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION SHOWED SEAS OF 7 FT UNDER A NE WIND OF 20 KT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...NWLY FLOW PERSISTS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING QUICKLY E ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF HELPING TO TRIGGER OFF A SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 84W AND 88W. ONCE THE TROUGH MOVES E OF THE GULF TONIGHT...THE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO WASH OUT INTO FRI MORNING AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES AREA TO ITS N INTENSIFIES INTO EARLY SAT. THE PRES GRADIENT CREATED BY INTENSIFYING HIGH WILL RESULT IN WINDS TO SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN AND MIDDLE GULF THROUGH SAT...E-SE IN DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS OF 20-25 KT WITH SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD UP TO POSSIBLY 10 OR 11 FT OVER THE MIDDLE GULF FRI AND FRI NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE TO 3-5 FT SAT AND SUN. THE GLOBAL MODELS AND REGIONAL NAM SUGGEST THAT THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT AFTERNOON PER REASONABLE AND PRETTY GOOD CONSISTENCY OF THE TIMING BY THE MODELS. THE FRONT SHOULD REACH TO A POSITION FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY LATE SAT NIGHT...AND FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE BY SUN EVENING AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES E OF THE GULF OVERNIGHT ON SUN. N WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE...GRADUALLY WEAKENING AND SHIFTING TO N-NE BY SUN OVER THE WESTERN GULF PORTION AND TO NE-E OVER MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON EXCEPT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE SE AT 10-15 KT. BY MON WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SEAS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. HOWEVER...IF THE SE WINDS INCREASE SOME MORE OVER THE WESTERN GULF THAN IT IS CONCEIVABLE THAT SEAS THERE MAY BUILD A BIT HIGHER THAN 5 FT. SW N ATLC...UPDATED THE 0600 UTC PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS ALONG WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 28N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS SE ACROSS THE WATERS IN ITS WAKE. WINDS TO THE NW OF THE FRONT ARE N-NE 20-25 KT WITH SEAS 8-13 FT IN MIXED NE WIND WAVES AND N SWELL. N OF 25N E OF FRONT...WINDS ARE SW 10-15 KT WITH SEAS IN THE 4-7 FT RANGE IN N SWELLS. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD ROUGHLY EXTEND FROM NEAR 26N65W TO VICINITY EASTERN CUBA BY EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MOSTLY E OF THE AREA BY EARLY FRI NIGHT AS IT LOSES ITS COLD FRONT IDENTITY. THE NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS N OF THE FRONT WILL BE FURTHER PROLONGED INTO SAT AS THE STRONG HIGH PRES SLIDES E ACROSS THE AREA. THE THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN SUN AND MON AS IT SHIFT TO E OF AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST SUN NIGHT AS ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS. THIS FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO WESTERN CUBA BY EARLY MON ...AND FROM NEAR 31N73W TO NORTHERN BAHAMAS THEN BECOME STATIONARY TO WESTERN CUBA BY LATE MON NIGHT. PRESENT MODEL INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE LIGHTER...NW TO N MOSTLY AT 10-15 KT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT 15-20 KT SPEEDS BRIEFLY ALONG 31N EARLY MON BEFORE WINDS SHIFT TO THE N-NE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 FT IN NE SWELL...WITH POSSIBLE SEAS TO 8 FT IN NE SWELL ALONG 31N JUST W OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W...UPDATED WINDS AND SEAS HAVE RELAXED OVER MUCH OF THESE WATERS. HIGHEST WINDS...NE IN DIRECTION AND IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT...CONTINUE JUST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT RELAXES WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CONFINED TO NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SEAS UP TO 12 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WATERS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL BE UP TO 8 FT...BUT SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY LATE SUN INTO MON. SEAS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 7 FT IN N TO NE SWELLS THROUGH SUN...BUT INCREASE TO 8 FT OVER THE NW WATERS ON MON DUE TO A NEW SET OF N SWELLS THAT BEGINS TO IMPACT THOSE WATERS. A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BECOME STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO JUST N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON AS OPPOSED TO PREVIOUS MODEL TRENDS DEPICTING IT MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND FAR NW CARIBBEAN SEA. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE