000 AGXX40 KNHC 230643 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 140 AM EST WED FEB 23 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST FROM NE TEXAS TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. WHILE THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH AND DISSIPATE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THE EASTERN PORTION WILL PUSH S OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA BY LATE WED. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE ENHANCED SE WINDS OVER THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF AS HIGH PRES BUILDS FROM THE CAROLINAS OVER THE EASTERN GULF...AND A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MIGRATES FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN ATLC ON THU. WINDS OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL INCREASE ON THU...BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES OVER THE ATLC AND LOW PRES DEEPENING OVER TEXAS. WINDS DIMINISH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF ON FRI. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTH AGAIN ON SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE GULF ALONG ROUGHLY 25N. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW PRES WILL DIG INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SAT INTO SUN...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF TO INCREASE BY SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... WEAK RIDGING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS IS MAINTAINING FRESH TRADES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SHIP REPORTS ALSO INDICATE A THIN RIBBON OF 20 KT E WINDS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN MOVING INTO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 02Z SHOWS WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE USUAL AREA OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. BUOYS IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN INDICATE LONG PERIOD N SWELL UP TO 8 FT IS PUSHING THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. THIS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY AS THE NORTHERLY SWELL DECAYS. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA MAINTAINS FRESH TO OCCASIONAL STRONG TRADES OVER PRIMARILY THE FROM THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE PERSISTENT TRADES WILL GENERATE NE TO E SWELL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN...WITH SEAS AS HIGH AS 13 FT OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA BY SUN. SW N ATLC... WEAK RIDGING ALONG 22N THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS IS WEAKENING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH 30N. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS SE THROUGH THE AREA BY LATE FRI. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT FROM THE CAROLINAS TO BERMUDA BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRI. SOUTHERLY FLOW N OF 27N WILL INCREASE BY LATE FRI AHEAD OF A SECOND WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL SAG S OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLC FRI INTO SAT. THE HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT TO THE SE OF BERMUDA AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ALONG 27N...FORCING THE FRONT TO STALL N OF THE AREA ALONG 31N ON SAT. LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW WILL PREVAIL N OF 22N DUE TO THE RIDGE PLACEMENT OVER THE AREA. EXPECT FRESH TRADES AND SEAS TO 8 FT S OF 22N...BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS AND THE ISLANDS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN