000 AGXX40 KNHC 190731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST SAT FEB 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER NE GULF WITH RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF REMAINS THE PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FEATURE THIS MORNING. MODERATE E TRADE WINDS PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT FOR 15-20 KT SE RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF. SEAS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT EVERYWHERE. LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE ID EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THROUGH MON. HIGH PRES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN SUN NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. THE FRONT WILL REACH THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT AND EXTEND ACROSS THE EXTREME NNW PORTION OF THE GULF TUE WITH LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN A SHIFT IN WIND DIRECTION TO N THEN NE BEHIND THE FRONT AND SEAS 4 TO 5 FT. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... LATEST ASCAT PASS SHOWS 15-20 KT ENE TRADE WINDS S OF 26N...WITH 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE BAHAMAS W OF 72W. A WELL DEFINED RIDGE IS EVIDENT ALONG 28-29N FROM E OF THE AREA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BETWEEN 27N AND 30N. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN TONIGHT AND SUN WHILE A COLD FRONT DEVELOPS N OF THE AREA AND INTENSIFIES AS IT SURGES SE. NE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC CAN EXPECT NW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 12- 15 FT SUN AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS PAST. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED E OF 65W ON SUN...SO WINDS COULD APPROACH GALE IN THE EXTREME NE CORNER...N OF 30N E OF 66W. HIGH PRES WILL SETTLE IN QUICKLY OVER THE AREA SUN NIGHT AND MON...THEN AN APPROACHING ATLC COLD FRONT WILL CAUSE SW WINDS 20-25 KT TO DEVELOP N OF 29N MON NIGHT AND TUE. SECOND FRONT WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE FIRST... WITH MOST OF THE HIGH WINDS AND LARGE SEAS BRUSHING PAST THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE GREATEST IMPACT BEING FELT E OF 65W AND N OF 30N. EXPECT WSW WINDS 25 TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT TUE NIGHT N OF 28N. SEAS BUILDING TO 12-15 FT IN NW SWELL. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA IN COMBINATION WITH WITH LOW PRES IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING DUE TO STATIC PATTERN. HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE SOME SURGES IN NE TRADES THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO AROUND 20 KT AND WINDS 20-25 KT AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. THESE WINDS INCREASE TO MORE WIDESPREAD 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NE PORTION OF SW N ATLC. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES E LATE TUE AND WED ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOME. LARGE NLY SWELLS WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE AND WED. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL