000 AGXX40 KNHC 181945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST FRI FEB 18 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITH A RIDGE SW TO NEAR 21N94W. THIS HIGH CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN GRASP OF THE WIND REGIME THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH E-SE 10-15 KT WINDS...EXCEPT NE-E 10-15 KT IN THE SE PORTION AND VARIABLE 5-10 KT IN THE FAR NE PORTION. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE ALL ZONES...EXCEPT 1-2 FT IN THE NE PORTION. THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND WEAKEN LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS. LATEST MODEL RUNS AGAIN HINT THAT A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE THE NW AND N CENTRAL GULF WATERS TUE MORNING...THEN QUICKLY MOVES E BECOMING STATIONARY FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO FAR SOUTHERN TEXAS WED AS STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED WELL N OF THE REGION SLIDES EASTWARD. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE SIMILAR WITH DEPICTING HIGHER WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ONCE IT FIRST MOVES INTO THE GULF SHOWING NLY WINDS OF 20 KT. WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW ON GOING WITH THESE WIND SPEEDS BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...AND FORECAST 15 KT. SEAS MAY BRIEFLY BUILD UP TO 5 FT BEHIND THE FRONT TUE BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT WED. BY WED WITH THE STRONG HIGH TO THE N CONTINUING TO SLIDE EASTWARD...WINDS WILL BECOME GENERALLY E-SE 10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF WITH MORE OF A NE-E DIRECTION IN THE E GULF ZONE. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWED AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION S OF 27N WHERE THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECAYING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER THESE SE WATERS WITH THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE RATHER HIGH IN THE SE PORTION WITH BUOYS 41047 NEAR 27.5N 71.5W AND BUOY 41046 NEAR 24N71W IS SHOWING HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 9 FT IN LONG PERIOD N SWELLS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 31N64W WITH A RIDGE SW TO ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA ALSO MAINTAINS CONTROL OF THE WEATHER CONDITIONS HERE. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN NLY SWELLS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR EASTERN WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE. THE HIGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUN NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO JUST SE OF SW N ATLC ZONE SUN EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WHERE S TO SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT SHOULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRES THAT RACES EASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLC COAST PUSHING WHAT APPEARS WILL BE A STRONG COLD FRONT SE TOWARDS 31N/30N LATE MON AND TUE. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY INCREASE TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH GALE CONDITIONS NOT A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY OVER THE NE WATERS TUE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. SEAS WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD TO 10 FT OR 11 FT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH THIS NEXT COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... HIGH PRES WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA IN COMBINATION WITH WITH LOW PRES IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING DUE TO STATIC PATTERN. HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE SOME SURGES IN NE TRADES THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO AROUND 20 KT AND WINDS 20-25 KT AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN...HOWEVER...THESE WINDS THEN INCREASE TO MORE PRONOUNCE 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NE PORTION OF SW N ATLC. THE HIGH THEN SLIDES E LATE TUE AND WED ALLOWING FOR THE PRES GRADIENT TO SLACKEN OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH WINDS DIMINISHING SOME. LARGE NLY SWELLS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC TUE INTO WED...SUBSIDING OVER THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC WED. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE