000 AGXX40 KNHC 171945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST THU FEB 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE FAR NE WATERS WITH A RIDGE SW TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON VIS IMAGERY SHOWED AND IS SHOWING EXTENSIVE FOG FORMATION OVER MUCH OF THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WITH VERY LOW VISIBILITIES. THE FOG HAS BEEN SLOW IN DISSIPATING OVER MOST OF THESE LOCATIONS. GIVEN THE PRESENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN NOT EXPECTED TO VARY TOO MUCH WITH MOIST SLY FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...EXPECT THE FOG TO REDEVELOP DURING THE EVENINGS THROUGH SAT NIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE NE GULF. IN THE WESTERN AND MIDDLE PORTIONS...INCREASING SLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT SHOULD ALLOW FOR MIXING TO CURTAIL THE DURATION OF THE FOG THAT DOES FORM LATE AT NIGHT. THIS SLY FLOW AS NOTED BY THE BUOY ARRAY THROUGHOUT...AND CONFIRMED BY THE MORNING ASCAT PASS WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH SUN. THE BUOYS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SEAS OF 2-4 FT E OF 90W EXCEPT S OF 24N...AND 3-5 FT W OF 90W AND S OF 24N E OF 90W DURING THE DAY. IN THE LONG TERM...THE ONLY QUESTION MARK RIGHT NOW IS THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO THE GULF. LATEST MODEL RUN TEND TO SUGGEST THAT A SOMEWHAT WEAK FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE NW GULF WATERS LATE MON INTO TUE...THEN QUICKLY BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS E OF 90W DURING TUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN STAYS RATHER ZONAL. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD SHIFT TO NLY AT ABOUT 10-15 KT LATE MON AND TUE...BUT WAVEWATCH GUIDELINE ONLY SHOWS SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 2-4 FT THROUGHOUT MON AND TUE. SW N ATLC W OF 65W... ASCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING SHOWERS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF NE 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS WHERE THE 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS REVEALS A DECAYING FRONTAL TROUGH. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE EVIDENT OVER THESE SE WATERS WITH THE TROUGH. SEAS ARE RATHER HIGH IN THE SE PORTION WITH BUOYS 41047 NEAR 27.5N 71.5W AND BUOY 41046 NEAR 24N71W SHOWING SEAS OF 7 TO 10 FT IN N TO NE SWELLS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA STRONG HIGH PRES CENTERED N OF THE AREA NEAR BERMUDA CONTROLS THE WIND REGIME WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY FRI EVENING AS THE HIGH TO THE N MOVES LITTLE...BUT THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT SE AND WEAKEN FRI NIGHT THROUGH TUE AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO JUST E OF THE AREA LATE SUN AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN OVER THE FAR EASTERN PORTION. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WHERE S TO SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT SHOULD MATERIALIZE AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRES THAT RACES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-ATLC STATES. LARGE SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN NLY SWELLS WILL PLAGUE THE FAR EASTERN WATERS SUN THROUGH TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... HIGH PRES RIDGE ALONG 30N COMBINED WITH LOW PRES IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA WILL ALLOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE TO E TRADE WINDS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. EXPECT VERY LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO CURRENT WIND AND SEA CONDITIONS THROUGH SUN MORNING DUE TO STATIC PATTERN. HOWEVER EXPECT TO SEE SOME SURGES IN NE TRADES THROUGH ATLC PASSAGES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS TO AROUND 20 KT AND WINDS 20-25 KT AT TIMES NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH SUN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NE PORTION OF SW N ATLC. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE