000 AGXX40 KNHC 150656 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST TUE FEB 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1026 MB HIGH LOCATED OVER THE N-CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N89W WILL SHIFT NE OF THE AREA TODAY WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NW FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK. WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE N OF 25N AROUND THE HIGH PRES CENTER...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE SLY RETURN FLOW NW OF RIDGE AXIS OVER NW WATERS TONIGHT PULSING TO 15-20 KT ALONG NE MEXICO AND EAST TX COAST WITH SEAS BUILDING TO ABOUT 7 FT IN THIS AREA THU INTO FRI. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. A WEAK HIGH WILL THEN FORM OVER THE NE GULF FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS 27N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION THIS MORNING...AND MERGE WITH THE FRONTAL TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MERGED FRONT WILL THEN MOVE SE OF THE AREA WED AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDS FROM W TO E JUST N OF 31N N THROUGH THU...THEN WEAKENS AS IT DROPS S FRI REACHING NEAR 27N BY EARLY SAT. SW TO W FLOW OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE CURRENTLY NOTED N OF 30N PER THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS. NW TO N WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE MERGING COLD FRONT THIS EVENING WITH BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 14-15 FT IN NW SWELL. THE HIGHEST SEAS CAN BE FOUND ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A RIDGE WILL EXTEND E-W FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO NE FL FRI. ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...A BELT OF NE WINDS AT 15-20 KT WILL DOMINATE THE WATERS S OF 23N E OF THE BAHAMAS ACCOMPANIED BY 8-12 FT SEAS IN N SWELL. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S ACROSS THE NE WATERS LATE SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC... DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NE HONDURAS WILL BECOME DIFFUSE THIS MORNING. THE 0302 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 KT WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF 25 KT IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BUT MAINLY IN THE WATERS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT LOCALLY ENHANCED TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE 0300 UTC ASCAT PASS AND SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS VERIFIED THESE WIND SPEEDS. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE SEEN ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE PER SOME SHIP OBSERVATIONS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ALSO TO 20 KT JUST SOUTH OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AS THE MERGED COLD FRONT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED MOVES SE ACROSS THE SW N ATLC. FRESH TRADES AND EASTERLY SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND THE LESSER ANTILLES RAISING SEAS TO ABOUT 10-11 FT. HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE N CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WILL SLIDE EASTWARD TO OVER THE CENTRAL SW N ATLC LATE WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT WHILE WEAKENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TRADES TO DIMINISH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR