000
AGXX40 KNHC 121745
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1245 PM EST SAT FEB 12 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE POST FRONTAL HIGH PRES CENTER OVER E TEXAS WILL SHIFT E TO 
NEAR 29N93W TONIGHT...AND REACHING JUST S OF THE MS DELTA SUN 
NIGHT...THEN MEANDERING IN THAT SAME AREA THRU TUE. THE HIGH 
THEN SHIFTS RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUE NIGHT AND WED 
WITH ITS RIDGE EXTENDING SW DISSECTING THE GULF FROM NW FLORIDA 
TO NE MEXICO BY MID WEEK. I STILL SAW SOME NLY WINDS TO 25 KT 
OVER SE WATERS THIS AM...BUT EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH WITH 
15-20 KT ONLY WATERS S OF 27N E OF 92W TONIGHT...AND LESS THAN 
20 KT THROUGHOUT BY LATE SUN NIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND 
VARIABLE N OF 25N AROUND HIGH CENTER EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN 
INCREASE IN THE SLY RETURN FLOW NW OF RIDGE AXIS OVER NW WATERS 
DURING MID WEEK. BUT MAY SEE SOME PULSES TO 20 KT IN E FLOW FROM 
FL STRAITS TO YUCATAN PASSAGE TUE NIGHT.      

SW N ATLC W OF 55W...
ATLC RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N65W TO 25N70W WILL SHIFT E AS THE 
FIRST OF A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM 
31N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA...CONTINUES SE BUT SLOWING FROM 28N55W TO 
HISPANIOLA SUN THROUGH TUE...NOTING THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS 
CURRENTLY ABOUT 270 NM WIDE. THE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF THIS 
INITIAL FRONT WILL SUPPORT CLOCKING NLY 15-20 KT WINDS... 
DIMINISHING OVER THE NW WATERS E OF NE FL LATE TONIGHT. A 
BACKDOOR RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS FL ALONG 29N SUN NIGHT WITH 
WLY WINDS N OF RIDGE INCREASING LATE SUN NIGHT-MON IN ADVANCE OF 
SECOND...BUT DRIER SHORTWAVE...THAT WILL MOVE OFF GA COAST 
AROUND SUNSET MON. THIS SECOND FRONT WILL RACE SE...MERGING WITH 
REMNANTS OF THE INITIAL FRONT AROUND SUNSET TUE...WITH THE 
MERGED FRONT WASHING OUT FROM 23N55W TO HISPANIOLA LATE IN THE 
WEEK. NLY WINDS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE BEHIND THE 
SECOND FRONT...AND QUICKLY CLOCKING TO E-SE AND DIMINISHING TO 
10 KT OVER THE NW WATERS WED-THU. NE WINDS 15-20 KT CONTINUE 
OVER SOUTHERN WATERS THROUGH END OF THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS TO 15 
FT IN N SWELL WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS S OF BERMUDA ON WED. 

.CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THIS 
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE SE AGAIN AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS NW OF THE 
BOUNDARY SUPPORTING N-NE 15-20 KT EARLY TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 
20-25 KT LATE TONIGHT. EXPECT LITTLE EVIDENCE OF THE FRONT BY 
SUNRISE MON...BUT NE WINDS AT 20 KT...SEAS TO 10 FT IN GULF OF 
HONDURAS...OVER ALL WATERS W OF 70W...DIMINISHING TO 15-20 KT 
TUE-WED...AND 10-15 KT THU. GRADIENT SUPPORTING E WINDS 15-20 KT 
OVER AREA E OF 70W...WITH SEAS TO 12 FT IN MIXED N AND E SWELL E 
OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS WITH THESE CONDITIONS CONTINUING 
THROUGH TUE. GRADIENT WILL RELAX WED-THU WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 
9 FT E OF THE WINDWARDS...BUT NE-E WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT 
WITH SEAS 8-12 FT IN N SWELL OVER THE WATERS NE OF THE VIRGIN 
ISLANDS WED NIGHT-THU.    

WARNINGS..

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON