000 AGXX40 KNHC 111916 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 216 PM EST FRI FEB 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BEGUN TO MOVE SE TODAY AND EXTENDED FROM THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO EXTREME S FL ALONG THE UPPER KEYS AT 18 UTC. OVERRUNNING MOISTURE EXISTS ALONG FRONT TO ALMOST H5...AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN ABOUT 150 NM NW OF FRONT...AND INFLUENCED BY JET ENERGY JUST TO THE N STREAMING ACROSS FLORIDA. DEVELOPING LOW IN ATLC OFF THE N FL COAST WILL BE KICKED OUT TO THE NE OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW HIGH PRES AND A REINFORCING BLAST OF COOL AIR TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE BASIN...AND FRESHEN THE FLOW ACROSS THE E AND S PORTIONS. HIGH PRES CENTER WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS AND DRIFT SLOWLY E SAT THROUGH SUN MORNING TO MAINTAIN A TIGHT GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT ACROSS S AND SE PORTIONS BEFORE HIGH SHIFTS INTO NE GULF SUN AFTERNOON AND GRADIENT DECREASES. SEAS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR 8 FT IN YUCATAN CHANNEL TONIGHT THEN BUILD 8-9 FT SAT ACROSS FAR SE PORTIONS BEFORE SUBSIDING IN WEAKENING WIND FLOW. HIGH PRES WILL SIT OVER N PORTIONS OF GULF MON AND TUE FOR MODEST WINDS...AND RETURN FLOW SETTING UP FAR W AND NW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE IS ANCHORED ON A 1031 MB HIGH IN THE ERN ATLC WITH RIDGE EXTENDING SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A STRONG GRADIENT EXISTS ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC E OF 50W WHERE SCATTEROMETER WINDS ARE SHOWING A VERY LARGE AREA OF NEAR 25 KT NE WINDS WITH ISOLATED SPOTS TO 30 KT. THIS IS GENERATING LARGE WIND SWELL THAT WILL DOMINATE THE TROPICAL ATLC AND MOVE THROUGH THE CARIB PASSAGES FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. INSIDE THE CARIB...A MODEST GRADIENT WAS YIELDING NE WINDS 20 KT BETWEEN 70W AND 77W THIS MORNING...ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE THAT HAS MOVED W INTO THE CENTRAL CARIB. THE GLFMEX FRONT WILL EASE SE INTO THE NW CARIB THIS EVENING AND STALL FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO HONDURAS SUN BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A SHEAR LINE. N TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE FLOW SE OF FRONT ACROSS THE SW CARIB BACKS N TO NE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REST OF CARIB WILL WEAKEN SAT THROUGH EARLY PART OF WEEK AS THE FRONT WEAKENS ACROSS THE NW CARIB AND WEAKENS THE ATLC HIGH PRES RIDGE. NE TO E TRADES TO THEN BE CONFINED TO THE SRN CARIB S OF 13 OR 14N. SW N ATLC... FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WE WERE FOLLOWING OVERNIGHT DISSIPATED ACROSS THE NW BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AS A LOW HAS DEVELOPED OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST AND MOVED NE TO NEAR 30N78W. REMNANTS OF FRONT TO THE E HAVE LIFTED N AS A WARM FRONT...WHILE HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO N AND NE GULF BEHIND FRONT HAVE REINVIGORATED IT ACROSS EXTREME S FLORIDA AND COASTAL WATERS. AS THIS LOW LIFTS OUT THIS AFTERNOON...NWLY FLOW TO 20 KT WILL BUILD IN BEHIND IT ACROSS NW PORTIONS AND THEN SPREAD SE BEHIND THE SE ADVANCING FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH SAT EVENING BEFORE FRONT STALLS ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE SE BAHAMAS BY SUN MORNING. WINDS BEHIND FRONT WILL VEER TO N TO NE SUN...WITH WINDS TO 20 KT PERSISTING WITHIN 90 NM NW OF THE DYING FRONT/SHEAR LINE THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS. SEAS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PEAK OVER 8-9 FT BEHIND N PORTIONS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND GENERALLY 6-8 FT ELSEWHERE BEHIND FRONT...THEN DIMINISH NW PORTIONS SUN NIGHT AS HIGH OVER GULF NUDGES ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA. WINDS AND SEAS MAY REMAINS AT 20 KT AND 8 FT JUST NW OF THE SHEAR LINE THROUGH MON MORNING. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING