000 AGXX40 KNHC 071950 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST MON FEB 07 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC REVEAL A RATHER COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN. A WARM FRONT LIFTING N IS IDENTIFIED FROM ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA SW TO A WEAK 1011 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W. A COLD FRONT TRAILS SW FROM THE LOW SW TO 25N87W TO 19N95W. A SECONDARY WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDS FROM JUST SE OF MOBIL ALABAMA TO 25N90W TO THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1638 UTC THIS MORNING REVEALED AN EXPANSIVE AREA OF N TO N 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE WESTERN GULF WITH MARGINAL GALE WINDS IN THE SW ZONE. BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W IS NOW REPORTING SUSTAINED N WINDS OF 30 KT. BOTH ASCAT AND BUOY DATA ALSO SHOWED AN AREA OF S TO SW WINDS OF 20-30 KT WITHIN ABOUT 120 NM SE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STRONG TSTMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT E OF 87W AHEAD OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH NOW TRANSVERSING THE CENTRAL GULF. AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS N...THE LOW WILL TRACK NE PUSHING THE COLD FRONT SE TO A POSITION FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY THIS EVENING AND TO SE OF AREA OVERNIGHT. THE NW TO N GALE WINDS OF 30-35 KT IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT W OF 95W WILL DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. SEAS UP 11 FT ARE OCCURRING OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF W OF THE FRONT. STRONG HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF BEHIND THE FRONT TUE INTO WED AND MOVE E AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE TEXAS LATE WED AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE THU AFTERNOON THEN MOVE SE OF GULF LATE FRI. GFS SHOWS GALE FORCE AGAIN W OF 95W BEHIND THIS FRONT WED AND WED NIGHT. A RIDGE WILL BUILD W TO E ALONG 30N BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS SUBSIDING OVER MUCH OF THE GULF ...EXCEPT IN THE S CENTRAL SECTION WHERE LENGERING NW SWELLS SHOULD RESULT IN SEAS OF 6-9 FT FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE FAR NW PORTION. THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS LOW PRES OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TRACKS NE ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST AND INTENSIFIES. BUOY DATA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SW 20 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 27N. THESE WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO N OF 30N TUE AND TUE NIGHT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH COMBINED SEAS THERE OF 7-10 FT. THE LOW WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NW WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING...REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO 27N81W LATE TONIGHT...FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE MORNING...FROM 29N65W TO NEAR WINDWARD PASSAGE BY LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND WEAKEN FROM 28N65W 24N71W AND FRONTAL TROUGH TO EASTERN CUBA WED THEN DISSIPATE THU. A COUPLE OF LOW PRES SYSTEMS WILL PASS TO THE N OF THE AREA THU THROUGH SAT DRAGGING WEAK FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED. TRADES WILL DIMINISH THU OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND EXTEND FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS LATE TUE THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WED. ANOTHER COLD FRONT THEN MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FRI...AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT REACHING FROM NEAR CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS ON SAT. EXPECT NW TO N WINDS OF 20-25 KT BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 FT THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 95W... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED S OF 26N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE