000 AGXX40 KNHC 061945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SUN FEB 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM JUST N OF NAPLES FLORIDA SW TO 25N85W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N88W AND TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT TO 23N95W WITH SE TO S FLOW TO ITS S. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHALLOW CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE FRONT NW TO A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR 23N97W. BROKEN ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH THE GULF BUOY NETWORK SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SPEEDS NOW DOWN TO 10-15 KT...AND SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE SECTION WHERE RESIDUAL NW SWELLS ARE KEEPING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. AS FOR THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT THINGS GET QUITE BUSY AND COMPLICATED IN TERMS OF FRONTAL TIMING AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SCHEDULED TO AFFECT THE AREA. WITH THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH POISED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S AND OVER TEXAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF IT REMAINS SWLY...BUT WILL BE DISRUPTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE DRIVES S SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY TONIGHT PER PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON EVENING AND TO SE OF AREA MON NIGHT. 12 UTC GFS ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW ZONE MON SO WILL WORD THIS PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT TUE INTO WED. THE HIGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A THIRD COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED AFTERNOON. GFS HINTS FOR AT LEAST MINIMAL GALE WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH GALE WINDS BRIEFLY OCCURRING IN THE SW ZONE W OF 95W. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 12 FT IN THE SW ZONE AND 11 FT IN THE NW ZONE. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY THU EVENING...THEN TO JUST SE OF THE AREA FRI. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W WED INTO THU... AND BRIEFLY IN THE NW ZONE S OF 26N W OF 95W WED WITH SEAS UP 11 FT. SEAS SUBSIDE FRI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION FROM 31N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. BUOY DATA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SW 20 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 28N. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH COMBINED SEAS THERE OF 7-10 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MON...REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY TUE...FROM 29N65W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA WED. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON THU AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SW TO NE FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER W TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED. TRADES WILL DIMINISH THU OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON...REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS EARLY TUE...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECETED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FRI. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 95W... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED S OF 26N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE 000 AGXX40 KNHC 061945 RRA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SUN FEB 06 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SWD FROM JUST N OF NAPLES FLORIDA SW TO 25N85W...THEN BECOMES STATIONARY TO 23N88W AND TRANSITIONS INTO A WARM FRONT TO 23N95W WITH SE TO S FLOW TO ITS S. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WITH EMBEDDED SHALLOW CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE FRONT NW TO A LINE FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR 23N97W. BROKEN ASCAT DATA ALONG WITH THE GULF BUOY NETWORK SHOW RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS THROUGHOUT WITH SPEEDS NOW DOWN TO 10-15 KT...AND SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SE SECTION WHERE RESIDUAL NW SWELLS ARE KEEPING SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT. AS FOR THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT THINGS GET QUITE BUSY AND COMPLICATED IN TERMS OF FRONTAL TIMING AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SCHEDULED TO AFFECT THE AREA. WITH THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH POISED ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S AND OVER TEXAS...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF IT REMAINS SWLY...BUT WILL BE DISRUPTED OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF THIS EVENING AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE SHORTWAVE DRIVES S SURFACE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN GULF EARLY TONIGHT PER PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL RAPIDLY REACH FROM NEAR TAMPA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA MON EVENING AND TO SE OF AREA MON NIGHT. 12 UTC GFS ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW ZONE MON SO WILL WORD THIS PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT TUE INTO WED. THE HIGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A THIRD COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE WED AFTERNOON. GFS HINTS FOR AT LEAST MINIMAL GALE WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH GALE WINDS BRIEFLY OCCURRING IN THE SW ZONE W OF 95W. SEAS SHOULD BUILD UP TO 12 FT IN THE SW ZONE AND 11 FT IN THE NW ZONE. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU...FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY EARLY THU EVENING...THEN TO JUST SE OF THE AREA FRI. HIGH PRES WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS AGAIN IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W WED INTO THU... AND BRIEFLY IN THE NW ZONE S OF 26N W OF 95W WED WITH SEAS UP 11 FT. SEAS SUBSIDE FRI UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRES. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 26N65W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE A COLD FRONT HAS ENTERED THE FAR NW PORTION FROM 31N74W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA. BUOY DATA FROM EARLY THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SW 20 KT WINDS E OF THE FRONT AND N OF 28N. AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED E WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE SE WATERS E OF THE BAHAMAS WITH COMBINED SEAS THERE OF 7-10 FT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N74W TO THE NW BAHAMAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MON...REACH FROM 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY TUE...FROM 29N65W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE TUE NIGHT...THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA WED. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON THU AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE SE U.S. COAST WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT SW TO NE FLORIDA. THIS COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N75W TO S FLORIDA BY AFTERNOON. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS AHEAD OF THIS FRONT N OF ABOUT 29N WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER W TO NW WINDS BEHIND IT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC...HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH WED. TRADES WILL DIMINISH THU OVER THE CARIBBEAN...BUT CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON...REACH FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS EARLY TUE...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE THROUGH THU. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECETED TO APPROACH THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN FRI. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE WARNING W OF 95W... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED LATE WED S OF 26N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE