000 AGXX40 KNHC 051950 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST SAT FEB 05 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BOTH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...SURFACE AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS REVEAL THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOW STRETCHING FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO TAMPA AND CONTINUING SW TO INLAND THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN EXTENSIVE BLANKET OF LOW AND MID CLOUDINESS WITH EMBEDDED AREAS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS EXTENDS FROM ALONG THE FRONT NW TO A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. ASCAT DATA AND A SHIP OBSERVATION ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST INDICATE THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS...NW TO N IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT...BEHIND THE FRONT ARE CONCENTRATED OVER THE FAR SW BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT THINGS GET QUITE BUSY AND COMPLICATED IN TERMS OF FRONTAL TIMING AND ASSOCIATED WINDS SCHEDULED TO AFFECT THE AREA. WITH UPPER SW FLOW ALOFT DOMINATING THE AREA MODELS...IN THE SHORT TERM...ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT STALLS OVER THE FAR SE WATERS TONIGHT WITH WINDS BEHIND IT CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ALONG WITH DECREASING SEAS. SEAS UP TO 7 FT IN THE SW ZONE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING TONIGHT. SEAS UP TO 7 FT IN THE SW ZONE WILL BE SLOW IN SUBSIDING TONIGHT. BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W SHOWED COMBINED SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT IN A N SWELL DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATIVE OF THE SLOW DECAYING PROCESS. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT SUN THROUGH MON AS WEAK HIGH PRES PRES TO THE N SHIFTS E OF THE GULF. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST EARLY SUN EVENING...QUICKLY REACH FROM NEAR MOBILE BAY TO 25N89W TO 19N94W LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING...FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA TO YUCATAN PENINSULA ON MON AND TO E OF AREA MON NIGHT. 12 UTC GFS ALONG WITH PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW ZONE MON SO WILL WORD THIS PACKAGE TO REFLECT THIS AS COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING BEHIND THE FRONT TUE INTO WED. THE HIGH THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A THIRD COLD FRONT THEN MOVES OFF THE TEXAS COAST WED AFTERNOON. GFS HINTS FOR AT LEAST MINIMAL GALE WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH UKMET BEING SIMILAR...NOGAPS SOME INDICATION IN THE SW ZONE AND THE ECMWF WITH A LARGE AREA OF 25-30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL HIGHLIGHT GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED W OF FRONT WED IN THE SW ZONE...AND FOR NOW WILL STATE S OF 27N W OF 95W IN THE NW ZONE. THIS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED BASED ON WHAT THE UPDATED MODEL RUNS SUGGEST. THIS FRONT WILL QUICKLY REACH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO LATE WED NIGHT AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE THU. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. EXPECT STRONG NW FLOW BEHIND THE THIRD COLD FRONT WITH NW WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 20-30 KT...AND SEAS BUILDING UP TO POSSIBLY 14 FT IN THE SW GULF ON THU. SW N ATLC... A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 29N65W SW TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. BOTH ASCAT AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS HAVE BEEN SHOWING SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT OVER THE NW WATERS DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. A SWATH OF NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT IS NOTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION S OF 24N AND E OF THE BAHAMAS. THE ABOVE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT IS POISED TO MOVE INTO NW PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN. THE FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER ON SUN AS IT REACHES FROM 31N74W TO NEAR THE NW BAHAMAS ...THEN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE SUN NIGHT FROM NEAR 31N72W TO 28N76W AND STATIONARY TO NW BAHAMAS. A SECOND COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE FLORIDA COAST MON...REACH FROM 31N73W TO CENTRAL CUBA LATE MON NIGHT...FROM 29N65W TO EASTERN CUBA LATE TUE NIGHT...AND FROM 27N65W TO EASTERN CUBA WED WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING FRONTAL TROUGH THAT DISSIPATES INTO THU. EXPECT STRONG SW WINDS TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING UP TO 30 KT...AND 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THESE CONDITIONS SHIFT E OF THE AREA LATE TUE INTO WED. MODELS...WITH DIFFERENCES AS TO EXACT POSITION AND PRES...SUGGEST THAT LOW PRES FROM THE NORTHERN GULF MOVES NE TO OFFSHORE GEORGIA COAST ON THU WITH A LEADING WARM FRONT. EXPECT SLY FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE FAR NW WATERS AHEAD AND S OF THE LOW. INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF SHOWS GALE FORCE SLY WINDS WHICH IS THE HIGHEST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. UKMET IS NEXT STRONGEST WHILE GFS IS THE LESS INTENSE. WILL LEAN TOWARDS 20-30 KT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AREA WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN AS WELL AS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT...THEN STALL AND MOVE N OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SUN WHILE DISSIPATING. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN MON...REACHING FROM EASTERN CUBA TO E HONDURAS TUE WHERE IT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON AND WED W OF 95W... .GMZ080...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WED S OF 27N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE