000 AGXX40 KNHC 021954 CCA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED FEB 02 2011 CORRECTED FORECAST GULF OF MEXICO LOW PRES POSITION AND ADDED ITS PRES MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST AND RECENT BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 25N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE BUOYS AND HIGH PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING N TO NE WINDS OF 20-25 KT W OF FRONT WITH AN ASCAT PASS SHOWING LIGHT SE TO S WINDS SE OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE MAXING OUT UP TO 11 FT IN THE SW GULF PER BUOY 22N94W...AND 7 TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT SE OF FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DISTINCT NE TO SW CLOUD LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS EXIST TO THE NW OF THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC DEPICTED AN ATLC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE E OF THE FRONT. THE RIDGE AS WELL AS RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING EASTERN TEXAS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSITION AND TIMING OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE GULF DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR SARASOTA FLORIDA TO EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TONIGHT...THEN SLOW DOWN AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM NEAR FORT MYERS SW TO WEAK LOW PRES OF 1014 MB DEVELOPING NEAR 26N91W WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT S TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI AS THE LOW DEEPENS AND ACCELERATES NE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND TO E OF THE GULF LATE SAT. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT INTO MON. STRONG NW TO N FLOW CAN BE EXPECTED BEHIND THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ON FRI WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE SW ZONE N OF ABOUT 22N AND W OF 95W. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...HOWEVER LARGE NLY FETCH WILL BUILD SEAS TO AROUND 13 OR 14 FT THERE THEN DIMINISH TO 9 TO 10 FT LATE SAT AND TO NEAR 3 FT SUN AND MON MON. SW N ATLC... RIDGE FROM 31N65W TO NEAR 28N78W WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW PORTION WED AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA BY THU MORNING. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NW WATERS AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE E PORTION MOVES E OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY TRACK NE ACROSS N FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT E ACROSS FLORIDA DURING SAT...REACHING THE NW PORTION EARLY SAT...FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA EARLY SUN...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION MON. EXPECT INCREASING S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT THU. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR 30N CAN BE EXPECTED SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. IN ADDITION...SHIP "OYYK2" 13N75W REPORTED NE WINDS 35 KT NEAR 1700 UTC. SO BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THAT PART OF THE SEA JUST RECENTLY. WITH THE PRES GRADIENT CHANGING LITTLE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...WILL EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES NE OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS SOME THU INTO EARLY FRI ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. TRADES THEN DIMINISH BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN INCREASING FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR NORTHERN BELIZE SUN AND MON. TRADES THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THAT ZONE SAT THROUGH MON AS ATLC RIDGING TO THE N INTENSIFIES CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE. NE TO E WINDS SHOULD REACH 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT IN LONG FETCH. AS FOR MAX SEAS...EXPECT THE HIGHEST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...UP TO 14 FT TONIGHT AND THU AND 13 FT THU TONIGHT AND FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT SAT THROUGH MON. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... ...AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W... GULF OF MEXICO... ...GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI N OF 22N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE