000 AGXX40 KNHC 021945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST WED FEB 02 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST AND RECENT BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA SW TO 25N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY INTO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE BUOYS AND HIGH PLATFORMS ARE SHOWING N TO NE WINSD OF 20-25 KT W OF FRONT WITH AN ASCAT PASS SHOWING LIGHT SE TO S WINDS SE OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE MAXING OUT UP TO 11 FT IN THE SW GULF PER BUOY 22N94W...AND 7 TO 9 FT ELSEWHERE EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT SE OF FRONT. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DISTINCT NE TO SW CLOUD LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS EXIST TO THE NW OF THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC DEPICTED AN ATLC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE E OF THE FRONT. THE RIDGE AS WELL AS RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING EASTERN TEXAS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC GLOBEL MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH POSUITION AND TIMING OF THE THE FRONT REACHING THE FAR NE GULF TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY WED. THE MODELS...ALSO MUCH LIKE THE 00 UTC RUN FROM LAST AND THE 06 UTC THIS MORNING ARE VERY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE THE SECOND SCENARIO THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WITH RESPECT TO THE SECOND ONSET OF NW TO N FLOW. SO FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGH INTO THU...LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF THU. THE LOW WILL TRACK NE PUSHING THE FRONT FROM NEAR FORT MYERS SW TO NEAR 25N90W...THEN S TO 19N92W BY THU NIGHT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT FRI AS LOW PRES FORMS NEAR 28N85W. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE FRI...AND DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO E OF FLORIDA SAT AND SUN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER NW TO N FLOW. THE FLOW ...HOWEVER...WEAKENS DURING SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH RATHER LIGHT NLY WINDS E OF 90W...AND E-SE WINDS W OF 90W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF LATE SAT AND SUN. HIGH SEAS WILL BE ABOUT 8-11 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SW N ATLC... RIDGE FROM 31N65W TO NEAR 28N78W WILL SHIFT E AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE NW PORTION WED AFTERNOON AS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N74W TO NEAR VERO BEACH FLORIDA BY THU MORNING. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NW WATERS AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH FRI MORNING AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHILE THE E PORTION MOVES E OF THE AREA. THE LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY TRACK NE ACROSS N FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT E ACROSS FLORIDA DURING SAT...REACHING THE NW PORTION EARLY SAT...FROM 31N74W TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY SAT NIGHT...FROM 31N72W TO WESTERN CUBA EARLY SUN...THEN BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION MON. EXPECT INCREASING S TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE RANGE OF 15-20 KT TONIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING TO 10-15 KT THU. INCREASING S TO SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR 30N CAN BE EXPECTED SAT...THEN QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND BECOMES STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION MON. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AN ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING REVEALED STRONG NE TO E WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 30-35 KT OVER A PORTION OF THE SW CARIBBEAN OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. IN ADDITION...SHIP "OYYK2" 13N75W REPORTED NE WINDS 35 KT NEAR 1700 UTC. SO BASED ON THIS HAVE ISSUED A GALE WARNING FOR THAT PART OF THE SEA JUST RECENTLY. WITH THE PRES GRADIENT CHANGING LITTLE THROUGH THU AFTERNOON...WILL EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THESE CONDITIONS. WINDS SLOWLY DECREASE BEGINNING IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...WEAK HIGH PRES NE OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT THEN TIGHTENS SOME THU INTO EARLY FRI ALLOWING TRADES TO INCREASE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC. TRADES THEN DIMINISH BEGINNING FRI AFTERNOON BEFORE AGAIN INCREASING FRI NIGHT THROUGH MON. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT AFTERNOON...THEN WEAKEN FROM WESTERN CUBA TO NEAR NORTHERN BELIZE SUN AND MON. TRADES THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THAT ZONE SAT THROUGH MON AS ATLC RIDGING TO THE N INTENSIFIES CREATING A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT THERE. NE TO E WINDS SHOULD REACH 20-25 KT OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FT IN LONG FETCH. AS FOR MAX SEAS...EXPECT THE HIGHEST OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST...UP TO 14 FT TONIGHT AND THU AND 13 FT THU TONIGHT AND FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 8 FT SAT THROUGH MON. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... ...AMZ084...GALE WARNING FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W... GULF OF MEXICO... ...GMZ082...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI N OF 22N W OF 95W... FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE