000 AGXX40 KNHC 011945 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... LATEST AND RECENT BUOY AND LAND OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE VERY SHARP WIND SHIFT WITH THE STRONG COLD FRONT NOW HAVING MOVED OFFSHORE THE TEXAS COAST INTO THE WESTERN GULF ALONG A LINE FROM JUST E OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA SW TO 25N96W AND TO TAMPICO MEXICO. THE BUOYS AND HIGH PLATFORMS HAVING BEEN STRONG WINDS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. BUOYS NEAR THE TEXAS COAST SHOW NW-N WINDS OF 25-30 KT WITH GUSTS TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE ON THE HIGHER REPORTING SITES. SEAS ARE QUICKLY BUILDING AS BEING REPORTED TO AS HIGH AS 8 FT BY BUOY 42020 NEAR 27N97W. WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED THE MORNING OFFSHORE FORECAST TO INCLUDE A GALE WARNING FOR THE WATERS W OF THE FRONT S OF 28N THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SE TO S WINDS OF 20-30 KT ARE BEING REPORTED BY THE BUOYS...E TO AS FAR AS 87W AS A STRONG LOW LEVEL FLOW FEEDS INTO THE GULF FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE E OF THE FRONT WINDS ARE SE-S 20 KT. SEAS E OF THE FRONT TO 85W ARE IN THE RANGE OF 4-7 FT...AND 3-5 FT E OF 85W. LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THE DISTINCT NE TO SW CLOUD LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS EXIST TO THE NW OF THE FRONT WITH AREAS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. THE PRELIMINARY SURFACE ANALYSIS VALID 18 UTC DEPICTED AN ATLC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE E OF THE FRONT. THE RIDGE AS WELL AS RIDGING IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT AS THE FRONT AND SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING EASTERN TEXAS CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD. THE 12 UTC NWP MODEL RUNS...VERY SIMILAR TO THE 06 UTC RUN...WITH THE FRONT REACHING THE FAR NE GULF TO BAY OF CAMPECHE BY EARLY WED. THE MODELS...ALSO MUCH LIKE THE 00 UTC RUN FROM LAST AND THE 06 UTC THIS MORNING ARE VERY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE THE SECOND SCENARIO THAT SETS UP ACROSS THE THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WITH RESPECT TO THE SECOND ONSET OF NW TO N FLOW. SO FORECAST THINKING FOR THIS PACKAGE WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES N AND CENTRAL FLORIDA TO BAY OF CAMPECHE WED NIGH INTO THU...LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF THU. THE LOW WILL TRACK NE PUSHING THE FRONT FROM NEAR FORT MYERS SW TO NEAR 25N90W...THEN S TO 19N92W BY THU NIGHT. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIFT N AS A WARM FRONT FRI AS LOW PRES FORMS NEAR 28N85W. THE LOW WILL TRAIL A COLD FRONT TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE FRI...AND DRAG THE FRONT ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF TO E OF FLORIDA SAT AND SUN FOLLOWED BY SLIGHTLY STRONGER NW TO N FLOW. THE FLOW ...HOWEVER...WEAKENS DURING SUN. WEAK HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD ACROSS THE AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WITH RATHER LIGHT NLY WINDS E OF 90W...AND E-SE WINDS W OF 90W. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE QUITE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE GULF LATE SAT AND SUN. HIGH SEAS WILL BE ABOUT 8-11 FT OVER THE FAR WESTERN WATERS THROUGH EARLY WED MORNING. SW N ATLC... HIGH PRES CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AREA WILL SHIFT E AND DISSIPATE THROUGH WED AFTERNOON AS THE ABOVE DESCRIBED GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT APPROACHES FLORIDA AND THE ATLC BASIN. LATEST NWP MODELS ARE STILL IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH MOVING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE SE U.S. AND NE FL COAST WED AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 31N73W TO NEAR VERO BEACH BY THU MORNING...THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND LIFT BACK N AS A WARM FRONT ON FRI AS LOW PRES FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOW WILL THEN QUICKLY TRACK NE ACROSS N FLORIDA LATE FRI INTO SAT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT E ACROSS FLORIDA DURING SAT...AND INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION BY EARLY SAT EVENING. THIS FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS REACHES FROM NEAR 31N74W TO S FLORIDA ON SUN WITH WINDS RATHER LIGHT ON EITHER SIDE BY THEN. BEFORE THEN... INCREASE SLY FLOW OF 20-25 KT WITH POSSIBLE WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR 30N CAN BE EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. A COASTAL TROUGH ALONG THE SE GEORGIA AND NE FLORIDA COAST WILL LIFT NE AHEAD OF THE THIS FRONT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WEAK HIGH PRES NE OF THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN A RATHER LIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH WED. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS LATE WED THROUGH SUN ALLOWING FOR TRADES TO INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SEA...AND OVER MUCH OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT IN LONG FETCH NE TO E SWELLS. NE WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ALONG COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE MAX SEAS ARE UP TO 12 FT BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE FRI THROUGH SAT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE