000 AGXX40 KNHC 010724 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST TUE FEB 01 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT IS LINGERING OVER NE WATERS FROM 31N49W TO 26N60W. SOME ENERGY THAT BROKE AWAY FROM THE TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT NOW REFLECTS A TROUGH FROM 27N65W TO 20N69W. THE 0114 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT LIMITED TO WITHIN 90 NM N OF THE FRONT WHILE SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE AREA MISSED BY THE PASS SHOW WINDS TO 20 KT NEAR THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE OVER NE WATERS THROUGH WED AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS E OF THE SW N ATLC ZONE. THE TROUGH WILL PRIMARILY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ALLOW A TROUGH TO LINGER N OF 20N NEAR 55W WED THROUGH FRI. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE WED...WITH THE 00Z GFS THE FASTEST MODEL TO MOVE THE FRONT E THROUGH THE N PART OF THE ZONE WED. THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE SLIGHTLY SLOWER CONSENSUS. DIFFERENCES ALSO ARISE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IMPACT THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE MODELS AGREE ON LIFTING THE FRONT NORTHWARD THROUGH FL AND NW WATERS THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WITH THE NOGAPS AND UKMET FASTER THAN THE TRADITIONALLY MORE RELIABLE ECMWF AND GFS. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF GROW BY FRI NIGHT WHEN THE GFS IS FASTER TO CARRY THE SURFACE LOW NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SE CONUS AND THE FRONT FASTER EASTWARD THAN THE ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SUPPORTED BY THE CMC WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WITH THE 00Z ECMWF NOW SLOWER THAN THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 00Z GEFS MEANS...WILL LEAN CLOSER TO THE GFS SOLUTION FRI AND SAT. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WITH WINDS IN THE MORNING HOURS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI WITH THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMING LATE FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALL OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT PREVENTS THE FRONT FROM MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN UNTIL SAT. AS STATED IN THE ATLC SECTION...THE PREFERENCE IS FOR THE 00Z GFS SOLUTION WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT BY THE TIME AS IT IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS AS WELL AS THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS. GULF OF MEXICO... WHILE THE 00Z GEFS CARRIES A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS PRIMARILY IN THE COASTAL WATERS AT 18Z TODAY...THE GEFS SHOWS A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE BY 00Z. THE 21Z SREFS SHOW A ZERO PERCENT CHANCE OF A GALE AND THERE IS NO SUPPORT FROM THE 00Z UKMET OR ECMWF FOR GALE FORCE WINDS HERE WHILE THE 00Z GFS STILL SHOWS A BRIEF GALE LIKE ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN. WILL STICK TO THE CURRENT FORECAST THINKING AND KEEP WINDS TO 30 KT WITH MENTION OF HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS IN TSTMS. THE 00Z UKMET HAS NOW BECOME AN OUTLIER ALOFT BEGINNING FRI OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHEN IT DISSIPATES THE UPPER LOW AND ALLOWS THE ENERGY TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT HERE AND A BLEND OF THEIR SOLUTIONS WILL BE USED FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THROUGH 18Z FRI. BY 00Z SAT...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOME SLOWER THAN THE 00Z GFS...NOT TO MENTION THE 12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE AND 00Z GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS...WITH THE TIMING OF THE LOW LIFTING NE OUT OF THE GULF AND THE COLD FRONT PASSING EASTWARD. THE GFS IS ALSO CLOSER TO THE OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSENSUS BY THIS TIME AND IT WILL BE RELIED ON FOR THE FORECAST UPDATE THIS MORNING. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER