000 AGXX40 KNHC 310712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EST MON JAN 31 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLC... HIGH PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC WITH A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING OVER THE SE WATERS OF THE ZONE FROM 24N65W TO 23N71W WHILE A COLD FRONT EXTENDS TO THE N TO 31N52W. THE 0134 UTC ASCAT PASS AND A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE TO E WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE N OF THE FRONT. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT TO BREAK OFF FROM THE COLD FRONT AND LINGER AS A TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA UNTIL WED WHERE IT WILL PRIMARILY BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS WHILE THE COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD AND DISSIPATES TONIGHT AHEAD OF A NEW FRONT THAT SINKS S INTO N WATERS. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ALLOW A TROUGH TO LINGER N OF 20N NEAR 55W THROUGH FRI...WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING AN EASTWARD OUTLIER. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST LATE WED...BUT LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO THAT IMPACT THE SURFACE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE 00Z GFS HAS NOW BECOME A SIGNIFICANTLY FAST OUTLIER ALOFT WITH THE UPPER LOW EXPECTED BY THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON FRI AND LIFTS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OUT OF NW WATERS FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. HPC HAS DISCOUNTED THE 00Z GFS SOLN AND FAVORS SOMETHING CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS LIKE THE 00Z UKMET AND ECMWF. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMING THU OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. ALL OF THE MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO THAT PREVENTS THE FRONT FROM MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI. WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS CONSIDERED A FAST OUTLIER WITH THE FRONT...IT CARRIES 20 KT WINDS GENERALLY W OF 84W ON TUE AND WED JUST LIKE THE PREFERRED ECMWF/UKMET. GULF OF MEXICO... AS EXPLAINED IN THE ATLC SECTION...THE GFS IS A FAST OUTLIER CARRYING THE PINCHED OFF UPPER LOW THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THU/FRI. THE IMPACTS ARE SEEN AT THE SURFACE THU NIGHT WHEN THE GFS DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF FARTHER E THAN THE OTHER MODELS AND LIFTS IT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FL BY FRI NIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS HOLD THE LOW OVER THE W CENTRAL GULF. THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED TOWARD THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...NEITHER OF WHICH SHOW WINDS TO GALE FORCE BUT DO HAVE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF 30 KT WINDS. THE 00Z GEFS HAS BACKED OFF CONSIDERABLY ON THE POSSIBILITY OF GALES IN THE SW GULF THU AND FRI...SHOWING LESS THAN A 25 PERCENT CHANCE COMPARED TO NEAR 60 PERCENT IN THE 30/00Z RUN. FOR NOW...WILL HOLD OFF ON GALES IN THE WESTERN GULF. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER