000
AGXX40 KNHC 302001
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 PM EST SUN JAN 30 2011

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

ATLC...
WEAK HIGH PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC WITH BROAD MERGER 
OF WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERING OVER THE SE WATERS OF THE ZONE FROM 
THE SE BAHAMAS E-NE TO NEAR 24.5N65W. THE FRONT HAS STALLED
AND WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY N THROUGH MON AFTERNOON BEFORE 
DISSIPATING. HIGH PRES WILL THEN RIDGE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF 
THE APPROACHING GULF OF MEXICO FRONT FOR FRESHENING E TO SE 
WINDS TUE THROUGH WED MORNING. FRONT WILL MOVE OFF N FLORIDA 
COAST AND INTO NW PORTIONS WED EVENING WITH GLOBAL MODELS NOT IN 
AGREEMENT HOW FAR SE FRONT WILL REACH THROUGH THU. GFS MOVES 
FRONT TO EXTREME S FLORIDA WHILE EUROPEANS MODELS STALL IT 
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THU. STILL EVENT FURTHER DISAGREEMENT 
AFTER THU WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WAVE AND THEN SFC LOW IN THE 
GULF ALONG THE STALLED FRONT AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR BETTER 
CONSENSUS. 

CARIBBEAN...
FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE 
FORECAST COMING THU-FRI AS FRONTAL WAVE AND LOW DEVELOP IN THE 
GULF. SEE DISCUSSION BELOW.

GULF OF MEXICO...
THE GLOBAL MODELS MOVE A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 18Z 
TUE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE 
ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY IS 
EJECTED OUT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND TRANSPORTS A 
DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS E TEXAS AND ALONG THE FRONT...QUICKLY NE 
TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY WED MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL 
AGREEMENT THROUGH WED MORNING BUT BEGIN TO DIFFER A BIT. 
GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF DEVELOP AN INVERTED TROUGH JUST NW OF 
THE YUCATAN AND SE OF THE FRONT...THAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS INTO A 
FRONTAL WAVE BY THU...CAUSING THE FRONT TO BECOME NEARLY 
STATIONARY ACROSS FLORIDA. 12Z RUN OF GFS HAS FRONT MOVING INTO 
EXTREME S FLORIDA BEFORE DRIFTING N WITH A DEVELOPING LOW ACROSS 
THE CENTRAL GULF THAT EVOLVES FROM THE FRONTAL WAVE. THE TWO 
EUROPEAN MODELS DO NOT TAKE THE FRONT AS FAR S ACROSS 
FLORIDA...STALLING IT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THU...WITH EVOLVING 
LOW EVENTUALLY LIFTING OUT TO THE N-NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
THE UKMET FORMS A LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE THE ECMWF 
FORMS A LOW IN THE CENTRAL GULF THAT LIFTS OUT INTO THE FLORIDA 
PANHANDLE BY FRI EVENING. THE UKMET HAD LOOKED LIKE THE MOST 
LIKELY SCENARIO PRIOR TO THIS 12Z...BUT THIS LOW DEVELOPMENT IN 
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS HARD TO SWALLOW AT THIS TIME. FORECAST 
BEYOND THU IS THUS IN FLUX BUT ATTM A GFS-ECMWF COMPROMISE IS 
FOLLOWED. STILL NO GALES EXPECTED BEHIND COLD FRONT IN ITS 
INITIAL MOVEMENT THROUGH THE BASIN.

WARNINGS..

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER STRIPLING