000 AGXX40 KNHC 300712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST SUN JAN 30 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. ATLC... HIGH PRES DOMINATES MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT LINGERING OVER THE SE WATERS OF THE ZONE AND PRIMARILY LIES BETWEEN 55W AND 65W N OF 24N. SHIP REPORTS FROM DDJG2 AND KS088 AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAVE BEEN IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND TONIGHT. AFTER THIS POINT...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST REMAIN UNCERTAIN...WITH THE 00Z GFS GRADUALLY CARRYING THE SYSTEM EASTWARD WITH WINDS BUILDING TO 20 KT OVER FAR N WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT TUE NIGHT INTO WED BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SYSTEMS AND WINDS DIMINISH. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF SETS UP THE TROUGHING FARTHER E OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AGREE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. LARGER DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WED/THU. THE 00Z GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON CARRYING THE COLD FRONT OFF THE NE FL COAST ON WED AND ALSO AGREE ON DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE WED/EARLY THU THAT WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET GENERALLY HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW POSITION TO THE WAVE IN THE GULF INTO THU WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PUSH FARTHER S THROUGH FL THAN THE 00Z GFS. BY THU NIGHT...THESE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING ANOTHER WAVE ALONG THE FRONT...BUT THIS WAVE WOULD BE NEAR THE NE FL COAST. THE UKMET IS THE WEAKEST AND MOST EASTERLY SOLN WITH THIS WAVE WHILE THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. WILL WAIT FOR THE HPC MEDR PROGS TO MAKE THE FINAL CALL...BUT FOR NOW...THE UKMET/GFS APPEAR TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS THROUGH THU MORNING AND THEN THE A WEAKER VERSION OF THE GFS IS MOST IN LINE WITH A COMPROMISE SOLN. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE ONLY UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST COMING THU OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE 00Z GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF AGREE ON SENDING A COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME...BUT ALL OF THESE MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF THAT PREVENTS THE FRONT FROM MOVING INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 00Z GFS...UKMET...AND ECMWF CARRY A COLD FRONT OFF THE TX COAST LATE TUE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY THAT WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ON WED. THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST OF THESE MODELS WITH THE NW WINDS BEHIND THIS FRONT INITIALLY AND MAY BE A BIT TOO STRONG. THE GFS ALSO BECOMES THE FASTEST OF THE MODELS TO SEND THE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE NW GULF. AT THE SURFACE...THESE THREE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO LATE WED/EARLY THU ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING THAT WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...THE GFS AND UKMET GENERALLY HAVE A MORE SOUTHERLY LOW POSITION TO THE WAVE IN THE GULF INTO THU WHICH ALLOWS THE FRONT TO PUSH FARTHER S THROUGH FL THAN THE 00Z GFS. THE GFS AND UKMET ALSO AGREE ON MUCH STRONGER WINDS BUILDING IN THE WESTERN GULF ON THU...WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING A GALE BY 18Z THU. THE ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER AS IT IS SLOWER TO CARRY THE TROUGHING ALOFT TOWARD THE GULF BECAUSE IT PINCHES OFF AN UPPER LOW OVER TX THU RATHER THAN BEING PROGRESSIVE LIKE THE GFS/UKMET. THE 00Z GEFS NOW SHOWS A 55-65 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GALE IN THE SW GULF THU AFTERNOON/EVENING WHEN THE ECMWF ONLY CARRIES WINDS TO 20 KT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...AND THE PREFERENCE MAY CHANGE BASED ON HPC PRELIM MEDR CHARTS...BUT THE FIRST CRACK AT ADJUSTING THE FORECAST WILL BE TOWARD THE UKMET WITH THE INITIAL PUSH OF THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE AND SIDE SLIGHTLY MORE WITH THE GFS BY LATE WED/THU...ALLOWING FOR FASTER PROGRESSION OF THE REINFORCING SYSTEM THAN THE UKMET. HOWEVER...WILL NOT JUMP ON GALES AT THIS TIME. WILL WAIT FOR BETTER AGREEMENT FROM THE ECMWF. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER