000 AGXX40 KNHC 291935 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 PM EST SAT JAN 29 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1022 MB HIGH NOW CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF JUST E OF 90W WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT E THROUGH TONIGHT...AND MOVE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OF 15-20 KT THAT HAS SET UP THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR W PORTIONS TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVERNIGHT TO NEAR 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE FAR WESTERN AND SW PORTIONS TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. HOWEVER AS THAT SYSTEM WEAKENS SUN AS UPPER SUPPORT LIFT OUT...RETURN FLOW DIMINISHES TO 10 TO 15 KT BUT BY THEN ENCOMPASSES ALL BUT THE NE GULF. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST THROUGH MON BUT HAVE DIFFERED GREATLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE NET FRONTAL SYSTEM FORECAST TO MOVE INTO TEXAS ON TUE. AFTER THE GFS FORECAST THIS FRONT TO STALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WED...AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS MOVED IT THROUGH THE FULL BASIN...THE LATEST 12Z RUNS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. A MAJOR MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES MON-TUE WITH A JET MEX SWINGING THROUGH THE BASE AND ACROSS TEXAS LATE TUE...WITH MODELS DEVELOPING A SFC LOW OVER E TEXAS TUE MORNING THEN SHIFTING IT QUICKLY NE INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 00Z WED...WITH STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND FORCING A COLD FRONT INTO THE NW AND W GULF. THE GFS SFC LOW IS A FEW DEGREES S OF THE EUROPEAN MODELS ATTM BUT MAY COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO REACH THE TEXAS COAST AROUND 18Z TUE AND REACH ATCHAFALAYA BAY TO TUXPAN MEXICO BY 00Z WED. MODELS SHOW 25-30 KT WINDS BLASTING OFF THE TEXAS COASTAL WATERS BY THIS TIME AND 25 KT ALL THE WAY DOWN TO W GULF COAST BEHIND FRONT...WHILE SLY FLOW 20-25 KT PREVAILS E OF FRONT...WITH POTENTIAL AREAS TO 30 KT N OF 28N. MODELS THEN LIFT OUT LOW QUICKLY TO THE NE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND EVENTUALLY STALL FRONT FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY 12Z THU. FROM HERE SOME SIGNIFICANT TIMING ISSUES ARISE WITH MODELS. LATEST GFS ENSEMBLES STILL ONLY SHOWING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF SFC GALES BEHIND FRONT WHILE EUROPEAN MODELS NOT SHOWING WINDS OVER 30 KT EITHER. AT HIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT IF GALES OCCUR THEY WILL BE VERY LOCALIZED AND LIKELY DUE TO COLD AIR DAMMING ALONG THE W COAST. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE CARIB SHOWED MODERATE E TO NE WINDS E OF A SHEAR LINE ALONG ABOUT 80W...AND MODERATE NNE WINDS TO THE W OF THIS SHEAR LINE. WINDS TO 25 KT ARE ASSUMED TO BE CONTINUING OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY 8-10 FT. AS GULF HIGH SHIFT E NEXT 24 HOURS...THE PRES GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE CARIB AND EXPAND 20 KT WINDS TO 15 OR 16N AND ACROSS THE FULL SRN CARIB THROUGH MON MORNING BEFORE GRADIENT IS WEAKENED DUE TO DYING TRIO OF BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS AND ADJACENT ATLC. E TO SE WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED...AS LOW PRES DIGS INTO TEXAS AND THEN DEEPENS AS IT LIFTS OUT...WITH STRONG SLY FLOW AHEAD OF FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT WITH FRESH NE SWELL WILL PERSIST OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC MAINLY S OF 19N...AND OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. SW NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A TRIO OF BOUNDARIES CONTINUE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. WITHOUT A DETAILED DISCUSSION ON PRECISE LOCATION AND REASONING...SUFFICE TO SAY UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS NW ATLC WILL HELP TO DRAG ALL THREE BOUNDARIES E AND NE...N OF 25N...OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THEY NEARLY MERGE AND BECOME STRETCHED AND WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE BOUNDARIES ROUGHLY 28N THROUGH SUN...THEN SHIFT NE MON AND OUT OF THE AREA TUE. SOUTHERLY WINDS START TO INCREASE TUE NIGHT AND WED OVER THE WATERS N OF GRAND BAHAMA...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT EMERGES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST LATE WED. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING