000 AGXX40 KNHC 271914 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST THU JAN 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT NEARLY BISECTING AREA FROM N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N80W TO 30N65W AND IS WEAKENING QUICKLY...AND BECOMING ILL DEFINED W OF 70W. A PRE FRONTAL TOUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST SE OF BOUNDARY ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND A FEW SURFACE OBS SUGGEST FLOW SE OF FRONT BETWEEN 65W AND 72W IS BECOMING DIFFLUENT AND WILL LEAD TO THE GRADUAL DISSIPATION OF A CLEAR BOUNDARY NEXT 24-36 HOURS...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF FRONT STALL ACROSS NW CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH THIS EVENING. 20 KT WINDS CONTINUE N OF 29N E OF FRONT AND N F 30N JUST W OF FRONT...BUT OTHERWISE WINDS BEHIND FRONT HAS DIMINISHED. NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT IS KEEPING SEAS 8 FT AND GREATER N OF 27N TO 77W ATTM AND WILL SHIFT E AND SE AND SUBSIDE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRES IS FORECAST TO RIDGE SW FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC AND INTO THE SE BAHAMAS AND WILL NUDGE THE FRONT NW LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT S/W SWEEPS ACROSS THE NE GULF AND PICKS UP THE FRONT AND BEGINS TO DRAG IT EWD FRI EVENING THROUGH SAT NIGHT. ADDITIONAL WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHS WILL SCRAPE ACROSS N PORTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND BUT ONLY ACT TO REINFORCE THE SFC HIGH PRES SHIFTING FROM THE CENTRAL GULF E INTO THE AREA. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AFTER TONIGHT AS NW SWELL PROPAGATE SE AND OUT OF AREA. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ESTIMATED TO AROUND 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM JUST SE OF LA HAVANA CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAS STALLED BUT WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT SE TONIGHT AND DISSIPATED S OF CUBA. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF FRI AND ACROSS FLORIDA SAT AND WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING WINDS TO 20 KT TO BUILD THERE BY 00Z SAT. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE E SUN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST CARIBBEAN TRADES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AGAIN BY SUN AND MON. A DEEP LAYERED COLD CORE LOW ACROSS THE ERN ATLC WILL SINK S INTO THE SUBTROPICS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND ALLOW BACK DOOR COLD AIR TO FLOW INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND ERN CARIB IN FRESHENING NE FLOW. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH HIGH PRES RIDGING E ACROSS THE BASIN FROM S TEXAS. WINDS AND SEAS CALMED RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT...WITH NO STATIONS REPORTING 20 KT OR GREATER AND THE HIGHEST SEAS REPORTED AT 18Z WERE 4 FT. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON MOVING THE HIGH CENTER TO THE W CENTRAL GULF FRI AND TO THE E CENTRAL GULF SAT THEN SHIFT E ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUN. SE RETURN FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WESTERN GULF BY FRI NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH RIDGES FROM WRN ATLC SW INTO THE BASIN. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING