000 AGXX40 KNHC 270634 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 135 AM EST THU JAN 27 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0118Z SHOWS WINDS TO 30 KT N OF 30N BOTH JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS FROM 31N73W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AT 0000Z. THE 0258Z PASS CLIPPED THE FAR NW WATERS AND SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT. THE MODELS AGREE ON SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT BY LATE THU AND KEEP THE FRONT LINGERING OVER SE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A NUMBER OF WEAK SYSTEMS PASS JUST N OF THE AREA. THESE WEAK SYSTEMS WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SAT. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY CLIP N WATERS LATE SUN THAT WILL RETREAT N OF THE AREA ON MON. THE 00Z GFS STILL SHOWS THIS SCENARIO WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY WITH THE FRONT...KEEPING IT N OF THE ZONE...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF HOLDS IT N OF THE AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM IT CARRIES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO SUN/MON WHICH CAUSES MORE RIDGING TO BUILD OVER THE SW N ATLC. WILL STICK CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR NOW. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE IMPACTING MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO THE 0114Z AND 0254Z ASCAT PASSES AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A WEAK COLD FRONT WAS FRONT HAVANA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 00Z. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE ZONAL TODAY AND THE N PORTION MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS CUBA...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY FRI. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU/FRI AND THE EASTERN GULF SAT AND WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...ALLOWING WINDS TO 20 KT TO BUILD THERE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE E SUN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST CARIBBEAN TRADES CLOSER TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AGAIN BY SUN AND MON. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OUT OF THE GULF AND HIGH PRES HAS BUILD IN ITS WAKE. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE CALMED RATHER QUICKLY...WITH NO STATIONS REPORTING 20 KT OR GREATER AND THE HIGHEST SEAS REPORTED AT 05-06Z WERE 6 FT. THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF THU AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRI. SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF BY FRI NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS SHOWS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...BUT NONE ARE EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE GULF. MEANWHILE...THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE GULF SUN AND MON. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH SUPPORT FROM THE OTHER MODELS...SO THE THINKING IS TO STICK WITH THE GFS FOR NOW. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER