000 AGXX40 KNHC 260706 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST WED JAN 25 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE ASCAT PASS FROM 0140Z SHOWS WINDS TO JUST BELOW GALE FORCE ON THE W EDGE OF THE PASS NEAR 31.5N77.5W...JUST N OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE GALE WARNING BEGINS AT 06Z AND WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER WATERS N OF 29N. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS HAVE MOVES INTO WESTERN WATERS...WITH A SQUALL LINE HAVING PASSED OFFSHORE OF CAPE CANAVERAL AROUND 00Z AND OFF THE COAST OF S FL BETWEEN 04Z-05Z. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY IS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS MORNING. THE ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 KT SE WINDS HAVE SET UP SHOP ACROSS NEARLY THE ENTIRE OFFSHORE FORECAST ZONE. AFTER HAVING BACKED OFF ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS YESTERDAY...THE 00Z GEFS RUN TODAY SHOWS A 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AT 06Z THIS MORNING. THE GEFS QUICKLY REDUCES THE CHANCE OF GALES TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT WHILE THE 21Z SREFS ARE A BIT MORE BULLISH ON GALES...ESPECIALLY S OF 30N...COMPARED TO THE GEFS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ALLOW GALES TO HUG 31N THROUGH 00Z THU. WITH THE ENSEMBLES AND OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREEING ON THE GALE ENDING IN N WATERS BY 06Z THU...WILL ADJUST THE WARNING IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. THE MODELS AGREE ON SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONT BY THU AND KEEP THE FRONT LINGERING OVER SE WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE A NUMBER OF WEAK SYSTEMS PASS JUST N OF THE AREA...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CLIP N WATERS LATE SUN. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... THE GALE WARNING THAT HAD BEEN OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ON TUE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 06Z AS THE PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION HAS BEEN COMPROMISED BY A NORTHEASTWARD MOVING HIGH PRES SYSTEM IN THE CENTRAL ATLC...THE LINGERING FRONTAL TROUGH S OF THE HIGH...AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO THE 0136Z ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. THE 0316Z PASS SHOWS WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN LATER TODAY. A SQUALL LINE IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU NIGHT. HIGH PRES BEHIND THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THU/FRI AND THE EASTERN GULF SAT AND WILL HELP INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE WESTERN GULF...ALLOWING WINDS TO 20 KT TO BUILD THERE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE E SUN...SHIFTING THE STRONGEST CARIBBEAN TRADES EASTWARD WITH IT. GULF OF MEXICO... AT 06Z...THE COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED FROM TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH A SQUALL LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE GULF APPROACHING THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE 0318Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20 TO 25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE MIDDLE GULF AS WELL AS THE SW GULF...WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT IN THE NW GULF. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GULF LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND HIGH PRES WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN ITS WAKE...CALMING WINDS AND SEAS RATHER QUICKLY BY THU. THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING THE HIGH CENTER THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF THU AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF FRI. SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF BY FRI NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 29N WED AND WED NIGHT...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER