000 AGXX40 KNHC 250710 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST TUE JAN 25 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0200Z SHOWS 20 KT N TO NE WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THE LINGERING STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED FROM 22N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE ZONE TODAY...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER NEAR 20 KT OVER SE WATERS ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF RELATIVELY STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. FARTHER W...SE RETURN FLOW HAS SET UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO EMERGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WED MORNING. THE ASCAT PASS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 KT SE WINDS HAVE SET UP SHOP W OF 77W. THE GFS AND GEFS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE EXTENT OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH THE 00Z GEFS NOW ONLY SHOWING AS HIGH AS A 20-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES N OF 30N WED AND WED NIGHT. THE 21Z SREFS ARE ALSO ONLY SHOWING AS HIGH AS A 20-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES...BUT SHOW A CHANCE OF GALES AS FAR S AS THE N PORTION OF CAPE CANAVERAL EARLY WED MORNING BEFORE RETREATING NORTHWARD. WHILE THE 00Z GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE ENSEMBLES OR THE 00Z ECMWF WITH THE EXTENT OF THE GALE AREA...IT HAS BACKED OFF A BIT FROM ITS RUN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. WILL SHRINK THE GALE AREA N SLIGHTLY TO BE IN LINE WITH THE TREND IN THE NEW GUIDANCE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS HAVE EXPANDED OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ACCORDING TO THE 0156Z ASCAT PASS AS WELL AS SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWS A REGION OF NEAR WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE MODELS HAVE HANDLED THIS STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADES WELL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY 18Z WED ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GFS....UKMET AND ECMWF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND WEAKEN THROUGH FRI. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVER TEXAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL DRIVE THE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH FRI. TRADES WILL THEN WEAKEN THU THROUGH SAT OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RETREATS FARTHER NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THIS NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES WILL ALSO BE FORCED S IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI AND SAT AS THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ZONE AND PUSHES THE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE NW GULF...WITH THE 0340Z ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR 27N BETWEEN 91W-92W. THE 21Z SREFS AND 00Z GEFS SHOW LITTLE CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS AS THE LOW TREKS E-NE ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF WERE BOTH SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE 00Z UNIFIED SURFACE ANALYSIS PRES FOR THE LOW INITIALLY AND NEITHER MODEL SHOWS WINDS AS STRONG AS THE ASCAT PASS. THE GFS IS DEEPER WITH THE LOW THAN THE ECMWF AND CARRIES A LARGER AREA OF 25 KT WINDS. IT WILL BE RELIED ON PRIMARILY FOR THE OFFSHORES/HIGH SEAS UPDATE...WITH SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD A DEEPER SOLUTION LIKE THE 00Z ANALYSIS SUGGESTS. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...CALMING WINDS AND SEAS RATHER QUICKLY BY THU. SE RETURN FLOW DOMINATES THE WESTERN GULF BY FRI NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER