000 AGXX40 KNHC 240658 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 AM EST MON JAN 24 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WINDS HAVE CALMED CONSIDERABLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 23N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH THE 0218Z ASCAT PASS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWING THE 20 KT WINDS ARE CONFINED TO N OF THE FRONT TO 25N. 20 KT WINDS WILL LINGER IN S WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY TUE...SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TO EMERGE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO. PMDHMD INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE SYSTEM THROUGH WED AFTERNOON...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC ZONE IS VERY SIMILAR BETWEEN THE TWO MODELS NOW. 00Z GEFS NOW SHOWS GALES BEGINNING IN FAR NW WATERS 06Z WED...MOVING E OVER N WATERS AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU MORNING TO S OF 31N BETWEEN 60W AND 65W. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THE GALE BEGINNING 06Z WED BUT DROP THE GALE BY 06Z THU...SLIGHTLY EARLIER THAN THE GEFS. CONSIDERING THE REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS NOW AND THE GEFS ONLY SHOWING A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE AT 12Z THU...WILL STICK WITH THE OPERATIONAL TIMING OF THE GALE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AT 00Z...A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT WAS FROM EASTERN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0218Z INDICATED NE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT AND THIS WAS CONFIRMED BY SHIPS VRDT7 AND 9HXC9. WINDS SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH HERE TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN WED MORNING ACCORDING TO BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS BUILDS WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS WEAKER. THE ECMWF CARRIES THE WEAKEST HIGH PRES SYSTEM OVER TX AMONG THE 00Z MODELS BY 18Z THU WHILE THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST. THE TRUTH IS PROBABLY SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN...SO THE FORECAST WILL BE ADJUSTED FOR A BLEND. ELSEWHERE...TRADES WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WED...UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 12 FT...AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS NE OF THE AREA. TRADES WILL THEN WEAKEN THU AND FRI OVER THE CARIBBEAN AS THE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. FRESH TRADES WILL ALSO BE FORCED S IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY FRI AS THIS COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE ZONE AND PUSHES THE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHWARD. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY 42020 IN THE COASTAL WATERS OFF CORPUS CHRISTI TX AND BUOY 42055 HAVE REPORTED WINDS TO 20 KT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS IN THE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ANALYZED ALONG THE TX COAST AT 00Z. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO STALL ABOUT 120-150 NM OFFSHORE TODAY AND CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN STARTING TONIGHT WHEN THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING MEETS UP WITH THE FRONT AND REINVIGORATES IT. PMDHMD INDICATES A PREFERENCE FOR THE 12Z ECMWF. THE 00Z RUN HAS COME IN WEAKER WITH THE LOW AS IT PASSES E ALONG THE GULF COASTAL PLAIN TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THE COLD FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT NOW WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...BUT THE GFS IS A BIT FASTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE OTHER MODELS. BY TUE NIGHT...THE UKMET AND CMC CARRY A STRONGER LOW ON A MORE NW TRACK INLAND THROUGH THE SE U.S. COMPARED TO THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE 12Z ECMWF...BUT THE TIMING IS SLOWER. WITH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAKER SOLUTION...WILL GO TOWARD THAT FOR NOW...BUT STICK TO THE ECMWF TIMING WHICH IS CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF RUN WHICH IS THE HPC PREFERRED SOLN. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF GALES IN THE NE GULF WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW WED MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFF INTO THE ATLC. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE ECMWF WAVE MODEL WHICH IS FASTER AND GENERALLY BETTER AT SUBSIDING THE SEAS. RIDGING THEN HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER