000 AGXX40 KNHC 230708 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EST SUN JAN 23 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WHILE THE 0240Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS JUST BELOW GALE FORCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM 31N71W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA AT 00Z...THE 05Z AND 06Z OBSERVATIONS AT BUOY 41047 NEAR 27.5N71.5W SHOW 33 KT SUSTAINED NW WINDS AND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. GALES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER N CENTRAL TO NE WATERS TODAY THROUGH MID DAY SUN AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT N OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO UP TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG 31N TODAY AND TONIGHT. BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON GALES DIMINISHING OVER THE ZONE BY 18Z SUN AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO FAR SE WATERS. 00Z ECMWF IS FASTER THAN THE GFS...CMC...NOGAPS...AND UKMET TO CARRY THE NEXT COLD FRONT EASTWARD INTO THE ATLC. THE ECMWF IS ALSO FASTER TO INCREASE RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO 20 KT COMPARED TO THE GFS...DOING SO BY MID DAY TUE INSTEAD OF AROUND SUNSET TUE LIKE THE GFS. HPC IS PREFERRING A SLOWER/MORE W SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH IMPLIES SOMETHING MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS...ALTHO THEY ARE NOT MENTIONING IT IN THEIR PREFERRED MODEL SOLN BLEND. THE 00Z GEFS...WHICH IS PART OF THE HPC PREFERRED BLEND...DOES NOT SHOW THE CHANCE OF GALES RISING ABOVE 10 PERCENT UNTIL 06Z WED...SIX HRS LATER THAN THE OPERATIONAL 00Z ECMWF AND IN LINE WITH THE GFS SOLUTION. THE GEFS SHOWS AS HIGH AS A 55-60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALES AND CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH 06Z THU. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GALE TIMING OF THE GFS. DO NOT SEE A GOOD REASON TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GFS OVER THE ZONE FOR THE TIMING OF THE GALE AND THE FRONT ITSELF. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AT 00Z...A COLD FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0240Z INDICATED N WINDS TO 25 KT N OF THE FRONT AND BUOY 42056 CONFIRMED THESE CONDITIONS THROUGH 0100Z...BUT HAS SINCE DIMINISHED TO 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN FROM 9 FT TO 7 FT OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE DEEP LAYER TROUGHING ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE CARIBBEAN TODAY AND THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA BY TONIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH LIES AHEAD OF THE FRONT...STRETCHING ALONG 79W FROM 14N TO 19N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE PICKED UP TEMPORARILY BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND FORCED NORTHEASTWARD. THE SURFACE TROUGH TRACK AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH HISPANIOLA TODAY BEFORE MERGING WITH THE FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC MON. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED MORNING ACCORDING TO BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF. THE 00Z GFS BUILDS WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WHILE THE ECMWF IS MUCH FASTER CARRYING THE FRONT OFF TO THE E AND DIMINISHING THE WINDS. CONSIDERING THE HPC PREFERENCE FOR A SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THIS SYSTEM...WILL HEDGE TOWARD THE 00Z GFS HERE. ELSEWHERE...TRADES WILL INCREASE TODAY THROUGH WED...UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 12 FT...AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS NE OF THE AREA. TRADES WILL THEN WEAKEN THU AS THE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER NE AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED OVER MUCH OF THE GULF AS HIGH PRES HAS MOVED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN. RETURN FLOW ON THE W SIDE OF THE HIGH IS SETTING UP IN THE W GULF ACCORDING TO THE MOST RECENT BUOY AND PLATFORM OBSERVATIONS. THE FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TONIGHT...STALLING ABOUT 120-150 NM OFFSHORE THROUGH MON. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BY MON NIGHT WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MEET UP WITH THE LINGERING BOUNDARY OFFSHORE AND OVERTAKE IT. THE 00Z GFS IS SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS TO DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NW GULF MON NIGHT. ONLY THE 00Z NOGAPS IS AS WEAK...BUT IT CARRIES A MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE LOW THAN THE OTHER MODELS AS IT TREKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. AS EXPLAINED IN THE SW N ATLC SECTION...HPC IS PREFERRING A SLOWER/MORE W SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM WHICH IMPLIES SOMETHING MORE ALONG THE LINES OF THE GFS...ALTHO THEY ARE NOT MENTIONING IT IN THEIR PREFERRED MODEL SOLN BLEND. WHILE THE TIMING OF THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO FIT THE BILL...A STRONGER SOLUTION IS PREFERRED. THIS IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET SOLUTION WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF IS CONSIDERABLY FASTER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE 00Z GEFS SHOW A 10 PERCENT OR LESS CHANCE OF GALES IN THE GULF WITH THIS LOW. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW WED MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFF INTO THE NW ATLC. RIDGING THEN HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 26N E OF 79W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER