000 AGXX40 KNHC 221823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 PM EST SAT JAN 22 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR HAS ARRIVED OVER ALL OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW GULF WHERE HIGH PRES IS LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER TEXAS. LATEST BUOY AND SHIP OBS REPORTING NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS OVER THE SW THROUGH E GULF AND SEAS STILL TO 9 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT ACROSS THE GULF BY LATE TONIGHT AS THE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS TO OVER THE FAR LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO SE UP IN THE W GULF BY SUN MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE SUN NIGHT STALLING ABOUT 120-150 NM OFFSHORE MON. THEREAFTER THE FORECAST GETS RATHER TRICKY. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS FORCES A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG IT IN THE CENTRAL GULF THEN RACES THE LOW AND FRONT E POTENTIALLY REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE AFTERNOON THEN E OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO WOULD YIELD WINDS TO 30 KT BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE LOW CENTER (MAYBE HIGHER). THIS SOLUTION IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND IS NOW MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND UKMET. HIGH PRES THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND LOW WED MORNING WITH WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING AS THE LOW CONTINUES OFF INTO THE NW ATLC. RIDGING THEN HOLDS IN PLACE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. EARLIER SHIP OBS INDICATED NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SEAS TO 9 FT NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 15N80W EARLY SUN MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE. A TROUGH HAS ENTERED THE W CARIBBEAN STRETCHING FROM THE E TIP OF CUBA TO ACROSS JAMAICA TO NEAR 12N79W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE TROUGH AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. THIS TROUGH WILL MERGE WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUE NIGHT DISSIPATING BY WED NIGHT. ELSEWHERE TRADES WILL INCREASE SUN THROUGH WED (UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND SEAS BUILDING TO UP TO 12 FT) AS HIGH PRES STRENGTHENS NE OF THE AREA...THEN TRADES WILL WEAKEN THU AS THE HIGH RETREATS FARTHER NE AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... STRENGTHENING 1001 LOW PRES IS LOCATED NEAR 31N77W WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOW TO CENTRAL CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND LOW. LATEST OBS AT NDBC BUOY 41010 120 NM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL ARE 27 KT GUSTS 33 KT. THE GALE WARNING IS ON SCHEDULE TO BEGIN AT 18Z N OF 27N E OF 79W AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE 12Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN STILL INDICATES A NEAR 100% CHANCE OF GALES DOWN TO 28N. HAVE INCREASED WINDS RANGING FROM 30-40 KT IN THE GALE AREA WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. GALES REMAIN POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WELL TONIGHT AND SUN AS THE LOW BOMBS OUT N OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 16 FT IN NW SWELL ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW ALONG 31N TONIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEAR 31N75W TO THE SE BAHAMAS...THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EARLY SUN MORNING AND E OF THE AREA SUN EVENING WITH WINDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING BELOW GALE FORCE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN THROUGH MON WITH A WEAK TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE GULF STREAM IN RETURN FLOW MON NIGHT. THE 12Z OPERATIONAL GFS NOW PROGS AN EVEN STRONGER LOW THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM ENTERING THE NW PORTION LATE TUE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING QUICKLY DEEPENING TO 998 MB OFF OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA TUE NIGHT WITH SOLID 35-40 KT WINDS N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT AND ALSO BEHIND THE LOW AND FRONT. THIS SOLUTION IS STRONGER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS ALTHOUGH IS CLOSER TO THE UKMET AND ECMWF AND THUS WILL INTRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED WORDING. THE NEW GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATES A 40-50% CHANCE OF GALES. THE TRAILING FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM NEAR 31N78W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY WED MORNING...FROM 31N71W TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WED EVENING...THEN FROM BERMUDA TO HAITI EARLY THU MORNING AND E OF THE AREA LATE THU. IF THIS SOLUTION PANS OUT SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 20 FT ALONG 31N WED THROUGH EARLY THU. HIGH PRES WILL THEN RETURN FROM THE NW IN THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM THU INTO FRI. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 29N FROM E OF 79W THROUGH SUN...AMZ080. .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 27N TUE NIGHT THROUGH WED NIGHT ...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY