000 AGXX40 KNHC 211840 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST FRI JAN 21 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY FLORIDA TO THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH REACHING FROM NEAR FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE NW YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. A SHIP IN THE FAR SW GULF EARLIER REPORTED 30 KT WINDS AND 10 FT SEAS PRIOR TO ENTERING PORT...AND NDBC BUOY 42055 CONTINUES TO REPORT 25 KT N WINDS AND 11 FT SEAS. BUOY OBS IN THE NE GULF ARE ALSO REPORTING NE 20 KT WINDS ALTHOUGH SEAS REMAIN LESS THAN 8 FT. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL ARRIVE OVER THE CENTRAL AND E GULF LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT AS THE FRONT MOVES SE OF THE AREA WITH NW-N 20-25 KT WINDS ARRIVING BEHIND IT THEN DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN 20 KT SAT NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS DOWN FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS UP AND INCREASES IN THE W GULF SUN AS THE HIGH SHIFTS E. THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TEXAS LATE SUN NIGHT WITH A 20 KT NORTHERLY SURGE AND SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. THE FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF MON EVENING...THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO NEAR 19N94W TUE MORNING PUSHING SE OF THE AREA LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A WEAK TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN REACHING FROM 15N73W TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTED ALONG 80W SAT MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE SAT NIGHT. OTHERWISE TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED TO MODERATE TO FRESH AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA WEAKENED. TRADES WILL INCREASE SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED AS THE HIGH REBUILDS WITH WINDS UP TO 30 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD TO 11 FT WITH SEAS BUILDING UP TO 10 FT IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL N ATLC. IN THE NW CARIBBEAN...A COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL EARLY SAT MORNING REACHING FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO E HONDURAS SAT EVENING THEN DISSIPATES SUN MORNING. NW-N 20 KT WINDS WILL ARRIVE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS TURNING TO NE BY SUN AS IT DISSIPATES. SW N ATLC W OF 55W... A COLD FRONT IS IN THE NW PORTION STRETCHING FROM NEAR 31N75W TO NEAR MELBOURNE FLORIDA WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT. SW WINDS OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 210-240 NM E OF THE FRONT WITH NW-N 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE TO JUST W OF BERMUDA TO 30N69W BECOMING STATIONARY FROM 30N69W TO JUST E OF N FLORIDA. 1006 MB LOW PRES WILL THEN DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE GULF STREAM NEAR 30N78W. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL REACH FROM THE LOW TO SE FLORIDA SAT MORNING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD GALE CONDITIONS N OF 29N AS THE LOW AND FRONT TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN INDICATING AN 80% PROBABILITY OF GALE WINDS WITH THE SREF MODEL SHOWING A 50% PROBABILITY OF GALES. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR N OF 29N BOTH E AND W OF THE FRONT WHICH MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT FURTHER S IF TRENDS CONTINUE. THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OF THE AREA SAT AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT REACHES FROM 31N77W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...FROM 31N69W TO CENTRAL CUBA SAT NIGHT... THEN FROM 31N60W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUN AFTERNOON AND E OF THE AREA SUN NIGHT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE CAROLINAS. SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 14 FT IN NW SWELL BEHIND THE FRONT. A TROUGH WILL FORM OVER THE GULF STREAM JUST E OF FLORIDA MON MORNING WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH TUE MORNING. SE RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS LATE MON AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS E OF SOUTH CAROLINA WHICH WILL DRAG ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N76W TO CENTRAL CUBA TUE EVENING THEN FROM 31N72W TO E CUBA WED MORNING. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .GALE WARNING N OF 29N SAT NIGHT AND SUN...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY