000 AGXX40 KNHC 191712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1215 PM EST WED JAN 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE COLD FRONT IS PROGRESSING E AND WILL MERGE WITH A WELL DEFINED FRONTAL TROUGH OVER THE SE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT. EXPECT THE TAIL END OF THE MERGED FRONT TO BREAK OFF OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE...WITH THESE REMNANTS LIFTING N LATE TONIGHT AND THU AS SLY RETURN FLOW SPREADS E ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST MIDDAY THU...WITH A MINIMAL GALE DEVELOPING IN THE POST FRONTAL NLY WINDS OVER THE SW ZONE LATE THU NIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING...WITH GUIDANCE MORE CONSISTENT PAST FEW RUNS. A PORTION OF THIS SECOND FRONT MAY ALSO LINGER OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SAT NIGHT...AND MOVE BACK W AS E-SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT 15-20 KT OVER THE W PORTION BY SUNRISE SUN...WITH THESE CONDITIONS SPREADING E OVER THE N-CENTRAL WATERS SUN NIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF TX COAST AROUND SUNRISE MON. MAY HAVE A LOW PRES ALONG THE N SEGMENT OF THE FRONT...WITH THE WRAP AROUND PROBLEMS OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE...BUT MOSTLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SW N ATLC... A COLD FRONT OVER THE NE FL AND SE GA COASTAL WATERS ATTM WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO SE FL AT SUNRISE THU...THEN SLOW AND NEARLY STALL FROM 31N55W TO 25N65W TO 26N80W. THE W PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY LIFT N ACROSS THE THE NW BAHAMAS AND S FL WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG FRONT TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN THU NIGHT INTO MIDDAY FRI AS REMNANTS DRIFT N. THE POST FRONT HIGH CENTER NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK A LITTLE FURTHER N...PERHAPS ALONG 33-34N THU WITH HIGH CENTER PASSING BERMUDA THU NIGHT WITH RIDGE EXTENDING WSW TO CENTRAL FL. THE SW FLOW N OF RIDGE WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT THU NIGHT...THEN FURTHER INCREASE TO 20-30 KT FRI MORNING JUST AHEAD OF A SECOND COLD FRONT AND SHIFTING TO NW 20-25 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS SECOND COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH FROM BERMUDA TO NW BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT WITH LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR 28N75W AROUND SUNRISE SAT. THE LOW IS NOW EXPECTED TO BE VERY STRONG...PERHAPS 25 KT OVER E SEMICIRCLE AND WILL RACE NE ALONG THE FRONT SAT. AS THE LOW CONTINUES N OF 31N SAT NIGHT AND SUN THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE SE REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO WINDWARD PASSAGE AT SUNRISE SUN...THE BECOME Q-STATIONARY FROM 28N55W TO 24N65W TO NE CUBA SUNRISE MON. FRONTAL REMNANTS WILL LIKELY DRIFT NW ACROSS SE BAHAMAS INTO TUE. TROPICAL N ATLC... NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT CONTINUE THROUGH THU THEN WINDS N OF 20N BECOME E-SE FRI-SAT AND SE-S 10 KT SUN AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND ASHES OUT OVER WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO SUN NIGHT INTO MON. NE-E WINDS 15-20 KT PERSIST ACROSS WATERS S OF 20N BUT 9-11 FT SEAS IN E SWELL WILL SUBSIDE TO 8 FT THIS WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH OVER WATERS N OF 17N THIS WEEKEND...AND EVEN RELAX SOME OVER THE AREA S OF 17N. SE RETURN FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AT ABOUT 10 KT THROUGH FRI. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SAT ACCOMPANIED WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS INITIALLY...BUT INCREASING TO NE 15-20 KT YUCATAN CHANNEL AREA SAT NIGHT. NE-E 15 KT NW ELSEWHERE CARIBBEAN ZONE SUN BECOMING E-SE SUN NIGHT AND MON. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. GMZO82...GALE WARNING 23N-25N W OF 95W THU NIGHT AND S OF 24N W OF 94W EARLY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON