000 AGXX40 KNHC 190702 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST WED JAN 19 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A VERY WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEING DRAGGED EASTWARD THROUGH THE N PORTION OF THE ZONE. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS AFTER SUNRISE THIS MORNING AND IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY OVERTAKE THE WEAKER FRONT. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF GENERALLY AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE SECOND COLD FRONT AND BOTH BUILD WINDS TO 25 KT BOTH AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT OVER N WATERS. A THIRD STRONGER FRONT MOVE INTO NW WATERS FRI MORNING...WITH THE GFS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER MOVING THE FRONT OFFSHORE THAN THE ECMWF. THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON THE TIMING WITH THE CMC EVEN SLOWER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE UKMET AND NOGAPS FAVORING THE FASTER GFS. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF WILL BE USED AS A COMPROMISE FOR THE FRIDAY FORECAST. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS BY THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS AGREE ON DEVELOPING A LOW ALONG THE FRONT N OF THE BAHAMAS BY EARLY SAT. THE 00Z ECMWF CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A SECOND LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER FAR NW WATERS SAT NIGHT THAT BECOMES THE DOMINANT LOW WITH GALE FORCE WINDS AND QUICKLY DEEPENS TO 1000 MB WHILE THE OTHER MODELS AGREE ON A WEAKER WAVE THAT MAKES ITS WAY NE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE DAYTIME HPC MEDR PROGS FAVORED THE GFS SOLUTION BUT DID HEDGE SLIGHTLY TOWARD A MORE NW LOW PSN AND STRONGER LOW. THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL ALSO LEAN TOWARD THIS SOLUTION. THE 00Z GFS ONLY SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT AND THE 00Z GEFS SHOWS LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT CHANCE AT GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE ZONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WILL BE WEAKENED AND SHOVED SOUTHWESTWARD BY A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE N OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...THE 1018 MB ISOBAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETREAT N OF 22N UNTIL LATE THU/EARLY FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE E AND DISSIPATES THIS HIGH. FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION S OF 20N THROUGH FRI WHEN THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS...WITH LIGHTER WINDS AND SUBSIDING E SWELL EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TRADES OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND THEN SHRINK TO THE S CENTRAL AND PORTION FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND. GENTLE TO MODERATE SE RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH FRI AS MEAN TROUGHING CONTINUES NW OF THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN BY LATE SAT...BRINGING 20 KT WINDS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL SAT NIGHT AND THEN IN MUCH OF THE REGION N OF 20N EARLY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT. GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT LIES FROM THE FL PANHANDLE TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N98W THIS MORNING. THERE ARE STILL SEVERAL BUOY OBSERVATIONS AS WELL AS THE 0224 UTC ASCAT PASS THAT SUPPORT 20 KT WINDS NEAR THE FRONT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT LATER THIS MORNING AS THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND THE FRONT RACES OUT OF THE GULF AND INTO THE ATLC. A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST LATE THU AFTERNOON. THE GFS CARRIES GALE FORCE WINDS NEAR THE COAST IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT AT 06Z AND 12Z FRI BEFORE DIMINISHING THE WINDS TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO CAP WINDS AT 30 KT. THE 00Z GEFS HAVE INCREASED THEIR CHANCE OF GALES...NOW SHOWING AS HIGH AS AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE WHILE THE 21Z SREFS CARRY AT LEAST A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR GALES IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W LATE THU INTO FRI MORNING. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS AND COINCIDES WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED GALE AREA. THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GALES IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GMZO82...GALE WARNING S OF 25N W OF 95W LATE THU NIGHT TO FRI MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER