000 AGXX40 KNHC 180720 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 220 AM EST TUE JAN 18 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVING THROUGH FLORIDA THIS MORNING IS CATCHING UP WITH THE SURFACE FEATURE MOVING INTO THE SW N ATLC. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY. THE 0244Z ASCAT PASS ALREADY SHOWED A LOW PRES SYSTEM HAD DEVELOPED NEAR 31N80.5W...A BIT FARTHER S THAN THE 00Z ECMWF OR GFS INDICATE. THE ASCAT PASS ALSO INDICATES THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE TO 30 KT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER N WATERS BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. THESE STRONG WINDS SHOULD MOVE N OF THE AREA RATHER QUICKLY TODAY WITH THE LOW CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL DRAG A FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH N WATERS THROUGH EARLY THU. MEANWHILE...THE NEXT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS AFTER SUNRISE WED. THE 00Z ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE GFS WITH THIS FRONT. CONSIDERING THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FORECAST OVER THE CONUS TUE INTO WED...A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS MORE LIKELY. A THIRD STRONGER FRONT MOVE INTO NW WATERS FRI MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS AS THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEVELOP A LOW ALONG THE FRONT OVER NW WATERS BY SAT...WITH THE GFS CONSIDERABLY FARTHER S WITH THE LOW AND THE ECMWF CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE GFS. THE UKMET LOOKS MORE LIKE THE GFS AND THE ECMWF BECOMES AN OUTLIER AMONG THE 00Z GUIDANCE AT THAT POINT. THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL FAVOR THE GFS WITH THIS FRONT. TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THE FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ZONE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WED WHEN THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS. TRADES WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO FRESH THU THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU NIGHT AND THEN DIMINISH FRI THROUGH SAT. SE RETURN FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF A SERIES OF FRONTS IMPACTING THE GULF OF MEXICO. ONE OF THESE FRONTS WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN SAT...BRINGING 20 KT WINDS INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE TROUGH FROM CEDAR KEY FL TO 24N91W WILL QUICKLY PUSH E THROUGH THE GULF TODAY AS THE IMPETUS SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT MOVES INTO THE ATLC. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS BEGINNING TO TAKE HOLD OF THE WESTERN GULF IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE TX COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FASTER TO CARRY THE COLD FRONT OFFSHORE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF...BUT THE ECMWF BECOMES THE FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE BOUNDARY AS IT CROSSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF WED. CONSIDERING THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FORECAST OVER THE CONUS TUE INTO WED...A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE PATTERN AGAIN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THU/FRI...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST THU AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS CARRIES GALE FORCE WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF CAPS AT 30 KT. THE 00Z GEFS HAS BACKED OFF A BIT WITH THE PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE WESTERN GULF BEHIND THE FRONT...NOW SHOWING AS HIGH AS A 20-25 PERCENT CHANCE WHILE THE 21Z SREFS CARRY A 40-45 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN BOTH THE NW AND SW GULF ZONES. THE FORECAST CURRENTLY CALLS FOR GALES IN THE SW GULF W OF 95W LATE THU AND FRI. THIS IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS AND COINCIDES WITH THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED GALE AREA. THE FORECAST UPDATE WILL CONTINUE TO CALL FOR GALES IN THE SW GULF BEHIND THE FRONT. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER