000 AGXX40 KNHC 170713 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST MON JAN 17 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... WHILE THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO BE BETTER INITIALIZED WITH ITS STRONG H5 SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER EASTERN TEXAS...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT THE GFS MAY BE TOO DEEP AND FAST AT THE SURFACE AS THE TROUGH TURNS NEGATIVE TILT AND MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC OVER NIGHT TONIGHT BECAUSE OF SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ASSOCIATED WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT HAS MOVED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND IS ACTING TO BEAT DOWN THE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE SOUTHERN STREAM A BIT FASTER THAN EXPECTED. THE GFS STAMPS OUT OVER AN INCH OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BETWEEN 18Z MON AND 00Z TUE AS A RESULT OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE FEEDBACK. THEREFORE...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS THE NEXT STRONGEST AT H5 WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH...IS FAVORED HERE. THIS MEANS A SMALLER AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED NEAR THE FRONT THAN THE GFS IS SHOWING. THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE. HERE...THE 00Z GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGHING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AT H5 AND THE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. CONSIDERING THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FORECAST OVER THE CONUS TUE INTO WED...A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS MORE POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE RESULTING TROUGHING AND CARRIES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SW N ATLC MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GFS AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS ALSO LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE COLD FRONT...CARRIES WEAKER WINDS...AND HAS A SMALLER 20 KT WIND FIELD THAN THE GFS. TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS ENHANCING THE FRESH TO STRONG NE TRADE WINDS OVER THE ZONE. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE AFTERNOON WHEN THE HIGH PRES SYSTEM WEAKENS. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FRESH UNTIL FRI WHEN A COLD FRONT FINALLY OVERTAKES THE CENTRAL ATLC HIGH. CARIBBEAN... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. RETURN FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THU INTO FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO AT THAT TIME. GULF OF MEXICO... THE GFS IS THE STRONGEST MODEL AT H5 WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGHING AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE GULF TODAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT FAR BEHIND AND HAS TRENDED STRONGER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SURFACE FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE GFS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE NE GULF TODAY THAT RAPIDLY MOVES NE ACROSS N FL. THE MODELS DIVERGE WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE SYSTEM DROPPING SE THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUE. HERE...THE 00Z GFS IS MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE TROUGHING FROM THE SHORTWAVE AT H5 AND THE RIDGING AHEAD OF IT COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS. CONSIDERING THE MODELS AGREE ON MOVING TOWARD A MORE ZONAL FORECAST OVER THE CONUS TUE INTO WED...A FASTER AND WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE LIKE THE 00Z ECMWF SEEMS MORE LIKELY. THE ECMWF IS MORE POSITIVELY TILTED WITH THE RESULTING TROUGHING AND CARRIES THE SURFACE COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF COAST AND EASTWARD MORE SLOWLY THAN THE GFS AS A RESULT. THE PATTERN AGAIN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED THU/FRI...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE NW GULF COAST AFTER SUNSET THU EVENING. THE ECMWF IS ABOUT 3 HOURS FASTER THAN THE GFS HERE WITH BOTH MODELS SHOWING 30 KT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE GEFS SHOW AS HIGH AS A 20-25 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...BUT NEITHER OPERATIONAL MODELS CALLS FOR GALES. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE GULF. DO NOT BELIEVE THE SITUATION WARRANTS HOISTING THE GALE FLAG RIGHT NOW. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER