000 AGXX40 KNHC 160734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 AM EST SUN JAN 16 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... STRONG HIGH PRES DOMINATING THE GULF THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS WEAKENED TO 1024 MB NOW CENTERED OVER E COASTAL LOUISIANA AND ADJACENT MS SOUND. A LLVL CONVERGENCE LINE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-SW ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF THIS MORNING...AND IS PRODUCING A MODEST INTERRUPTION IN THE NELY FLOW ACROSS SE PORTIONS. A 0324 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED E TO NE WINDS 20-25 KT N OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND LIKELY THROUGH THE STRAITS...WITH WEAKER FLOW NEAR 15 KT TO THE NW...AND THEN SOMEWHAT ENHANCED NELY FLOW 15-20 KT INVOF THE LLVL DISTURBANCE. THIS ASCAT PASS ALSO SHOWED SE WINDS 20-25 KT ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL WATERS N OF 20N...WHILE BUOYS OFF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST HAVE RECENTLY REPORTED SE WINDS NEAR 25 KT DUE TO A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS S TEXAS. A SOMEWHAT COMPLEX PATTERN WILL EVOLVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS FIRST A CUTOFF UPPER LOW MOVES ENE ACROSS THE NW GULF TODAY AND MON...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL TROUGH...FOLLOWING BY A SHARP UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH TUE MORNING AND GRADUALLY ABSORBING THE CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE NE GULF COAST STATES...AND DRAGGING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE BASIN THAT BECOMES STRUNG OUT FROM THE UPPER MEXICAN COAST DIAGONALLY NE TO THE NE GULF COAST BY WED MORNING. THE FRONT IS BRIEFLY ANCHORED ALONG THE CENTRAL MEXICAN COAST WED WHILE E PORTION PUSHES SE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA BEFORE RETURN FLOW SETS UP QUICKLY WED EVENING/NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT WILL ENTER THE NW GULF THU EVENING. MODELS STILL DIFFERING ON SOLUTIONS AT THE SURFACE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FIRST TWO UPPER FEATURES...WITH BOTH THE GFS AND UKMET FORECASTING A WEAK LOW IN THE NE GULF BY MON AFTERNOON... AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. FOR A CHANGE I WILL DISCOUNT THE ECMWF FOR THIS FORECAST. LOOK FOR SE TO S FLOW OF 20-25 KT TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NW GULF AS THE LOW OVER SE TEXAS MOVES NE AND WEAKENS. THE CONVERGENCE LINE/DISTURBANCE IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALSO LOOKS TO BE RELEVANT AS PRES GRADIENT ON THE N AND NE QUADS EXPECTED TO YIELD 20 KT E TO SE WINDS AND MAINTAIN SEAS AROUND 6 FT AS THIS FEATURE LIFTS N THROUGH TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF AND THE SURFACE LOW TRACKING NE INTO W LOUISIANA WILL YIELD A SW TO W FLOW ACROSS THE N HALF OF THE BASIN MON AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH SLY FLOW OF 20 KT N OF 22N W OF 95W MON NIGHT BECOMING SWLY TUE N OF 24N ACROSS THE ENTIRE GULF AHEAD OF FRONT MOVING OFF TEXAS AND LA COASTS. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PAST SEVERAL DAYS HAS BECOME STRUNG OUT AND WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AND IS NOW A SHEAR LINE FROM 25.5N65W TO ERN CUBA. WEAK MID/UPPER PERTURBATIONS MOVING ENE ALONG IT HAVE KICKED OFF MODEST CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY THIS MORNING BETWEEN 72W AND 60W. WEAK HIGH TO THE N AND NE IS SHIFTING GRADUALLY E AND ALLOWING FOR SE LLVL FLOW NE OF THE NE CARIB TO BEGIN TO PUSH THIS BOUNDARY N AND NW. FRESH NE WINDS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THIS BOUNDARY AND THROUGH THE SE BAHAMAS WILL SHIFT SLOWLY NW WITH THIS BOUNDARY TODAY AND WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 20 KT TONIGHT. SEAS OF 8-9 FT IN THE REGION OF FRESH FLOW WILL SUBSIDE IN TURN TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH NW PORTIONS FROM THE E GULF MON EVENING WITH SE-S WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES IN THE NW PORTION. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE OF THE AREA TUE MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA THEN FROM 31N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE EVENING AND NE OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING AS RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 25N-26N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE E GULF WED REACHING FROM NEAR 31N77W TO JUPITER FLORIDA WED EVENING THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL LIKELY OCCUR N OF 30N WITH BOTH FRONTS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... IN THE CARIBBEAN...THE SHEAR LINE HAS BECOME DIFFUSE ACROSS THE NW CARIB. HOWEVER NELY WINDS NEAR 20 KT CONTINUE IN THE LEE OF CUBA AND ACROSS THE AREA W OF JAMAICA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE ELY AND WEAKEN TO AROUND 15 KT TODAY IN RESPONSE TO GULF OF MEXICO FEATURES. FRESH TRADES OTHERWISE CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN CARIB AND A PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. MILD SELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIB MON NIGHT AND TUE AS WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS DRAG E ACROSS THE GULF...WHILE HIGH PRES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE NE CARIB REGION AND TIGHTENS THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE ENTIRE TROPICAL ATLC AND CARIB E OF 78W. TRADES WILL THUS INCREASE MON THROUGH WED TO 20-25 KT (AND UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA). AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND WED. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFF MORE TO THE NE-E. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...FRESHENING TRADES WILL MAINTAIN SEAS 9-12 FT SEAS IN MAINLY NE SWELL (WITH SECONDARY NW SWELL). TRADES AND SEAS WILL WEAKEN/SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THU AS CENTRAL ATLC HIGH WEAKENS AND IS SHUNTED E BY W ATLC FRONTAL SYSTEM. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING