000 AGXX40 KNHC 151851 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST SAT JAN 15 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1029 MB HIGH PRES REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH RIDGING EXTENDING FROM THE HIGH CENTER TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES INDICATE MAINLY NE-E 10-15 KT FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E GULF. MEANWHILE A SURFACE TROUGH HAS DEVELOPED JUST INLAND OVER NE MEXICO AND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS RESULTING IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT. E-SE 15-20 KT WINDS LOCALLY TO 25 KT NEAR TEXAS EXIST OVER THE W GULF AND WITH 8 FT SEAS IN SE SWELL CURRENTLY REPORTED AT A BUOY JUST E OF CORPUS CRISTI TEXAS. PERSISTENT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS FROM S TO N NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE TROUGH ON SUN WHILE THE HIGH AND RIDGING WEAKEN AND SHIFT NE. THE LOW WILL MOVE OFFSHORE OF TEXAS MON MORNING TO NEAR 29N93W WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW CENTER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL BECOME S-SW 15-20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH W-NW 15-20 KT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 29N84W WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON EVENING THEN MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE MON NIGHT WITH HIGH PRES VERY BRIEFLY FORMING OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND LOW. SE-S RETURN FLOW ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPS IN THE W GULF TUE AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE OFF THE TEXAS COAST LATE TUE AFTERNOON OR EARLY TUE EVENING. THE FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM SE LOUISIANA TO THE SW GULF TUE NIGHT THEN FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE NORTHERN YUCATAN COAST WED AFTERNOON AND E OF THE AREA WED NIGHT AS HIGH PRES RETURNS LATE WED NIGHT AND THU. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A STATIONARY FROM REACHES FROM NEAR 28N55W TO 27N60W WITH A SHEAR LINE EXTENDING FROM THERE THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAIN WITHIN 120-180 NM OF THE BOUNDARIES. A RECENT ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NW OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH SEAS OF 9-10 FT IN NE SWELL BEING REPORTED AT NDBC BUOY 41046. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE EITHER TONIGHT OR EARLY SUN WHILE THE SHEAR AXIS BECOMES MORE DIFFUSE AND SHIFTS SLIGHTLY NW. AS THE SHEAR AXIS WEAKENS THE AREA OF NE 20 KT WINDS WILL SHRINK ALLOWING FOR SEAS TO ALSO BEGIN TO SUBSIDE EVENTUALLY BELOW 8 FT BY MON NIGHT. A COLD FRONT AND AREA OF LOW PRES WILL APPROACH FROM THE E GULF MON NIGHT WITH SE-S WINDS INCREASING TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES IN THE NW PORTION. THE LOW QUICKLY MOVES NE OF THE AREA TUE MORNING WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA THEN FROM 31N74W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TUE EVENING AND NE OF THE AREA BY WED MORNING AS RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 25N-26N FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE E GULF WED REACHING FROM NEAR 31N77W TO JUPITER FLORIDA WED EVENING THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS THU AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST WINDS AND HIGHEST SEAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN N OF THE AREA WITH BOTH FRONTS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... IN THE CARIBBEAN...A SHEAR LINE NOW FROM EASTERN CUBA THROUGH JAMAICA TO NEAR 15N81W WILL BECOME EVEN LESS DEFINED THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATED NE 20-25 KT WINDS W OF THE AXIS AND NE 15-20 KT SE OF THE AXIS IN THE W CARIBBEAN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH AND SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND SUN WITH MODERATE TO FRESH NE-E TRADES SETTING UP ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BY SUN NIGHT. TRADES WILL INCREASE MON THROUGH WED (UP TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA) AS HIGH PRES NE OF THE AREA STRENGTHENS. AS A RESULT SEAS WILL BUILD TO UP TO 11 FT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY TUE AND WED. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THU AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OFF MORE TO THE NE-E. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TO 20-25 KT SUN NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH 8-12 FT SEAS IN MAINLY NE SWELL (SECONDARY SWELL WILL BE FROM THE NW). TRADES AND SEAS WILL WEAKEN/SUBSIDE SLIGHTLY THU. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY