000 AGXX40 KNHC 141832 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 PM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1033 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED NEAR THE ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI BORDER NEAR 33N89W WITH COLD AIR BEING PUMPED INTO THE E AND CENTRAL GULF AROUND THE HIGH FROM THE CONTINENTAL U.S. A 1454 UTC ASCAT AND 1222 UTC WINDSAT PASS BOTH CAPTURED NE 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE E AND CENTRAL GULF WITH 15-20 KT E-SE RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE W GULF. SEAS TO 7 FT IN LINGERING NE SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT AS THE HIGH WEAKENS TO 1027 MB AND THE AIRMASS OVER THE GULF MODIFIES. RETURN FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE W GULF THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF FROM TEXAS SUN MORNING PUSHING OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THE NORTHERN PART OF THE FRONT. THE 12 UTC OPERATIONAL GFS...UKMET AND ECMWF INDICATE CLOSER SOLUTIONS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO THE LOCATION OF THE NORTHERN LOW AND TRACK OF THE FRONT AND ALL THREE MODELS NOW SHOW A POSSIBLE SECOND LOW OR DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO THE S IN THE CENTRAL GULF LIFTING NE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE MON NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE MON MORNING THEN FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND TO THE S CENTRAL GULF TUE MORNING PUSHING E OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT. HIGH PRES BUILDS IN WED WITH RETURN FLOW RETURNING IN THE W GULF LATE WED. SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W... A WEAKENING COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NEAR 29N55W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A 1452 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED NE 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 210 NM NW OF THE FRONT AND RECENT BUOY REPORTS INDICATE 9-11 FT SEAS IN NE SWELL OVER THE SAME AREA. MEANWHILE NE 10-15 KT FLOW EXISTS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA EXCEPT E TO SE 15-20 KT SE OF THE FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN WILL DISSIPATE SUN WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT BY SUN MORNING AND THE NE SWELL SUBSIDING...WHILE A TROUGH BECOMES ORIENTED FROM NEAR THE NE CORNER TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS BY SUN NIGHT. THE TROUGH PUSHES NE OF THE AREA MON NIGHT WITH 15-20 KT SE-S RETURN FLOW BECOMING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. WINDS BECOME S-SW AND INCREASE TO 20 KT N OF 27N AHEAD OF THE FRONT EARLY TUE WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE W-NW AT 15-20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM NEAR 31N77W TO SE FLORIDA TUE NIGHT THEN FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE TURKS AND CAICOS WED NIGHT AS RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE CAROLINAS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS IS BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE INTO A REMNANT SHEAR AXIS SAT. A 1454 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED N TO NE WINDS OF 20 KT NEAR THE FRONT WITH THE SAME PASS SHOWING NE-E WINDS OF 20-25 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN (STRONGEST NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA) DUE TO A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND A TROUGH OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND RIDGING NE OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT WHILE BECOMING NE-E ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN BY SUN MORNING. TRADES WILL THEN INCREASE MON NIGHT THROUGH WED AS RIDGING INCREASES NE OF THE AREA AND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT MOVES BY N OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC...A 1314 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY NE-E 15-20 KT WINDS OVER THE BASIN EXCEPT FOR 10-15 KT OVER THE FAR NORTHERN PORTION WITH A METEO FRANCE BUOY NEAR 15N56W INDICATING 9-10 FT SEAS IN E SWELL. EXPECT NE-E WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 8-11 FT IN MIXED NE AND NW SWELL S OF 19N AND 10-15 KT E-SE WINDS N OF 19N THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRES HOLDS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY