000 AGXX40 KNHC 140725 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 224 AM EST FRI JAN 14 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES ACROSS THE S AND SE U.S. IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AND ALLOWING PRES GRADIENT...AND WINDS...TO SLOWLY DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN. RECENT ASCAT PASSES 02-0400 UTC HAVE SHOWN WINDS SHIFTING E AT 15-20 ACROSS PORTIONS W OF 94W...WHILE N-NE WINDS CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE E HALF...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AT 20-25 KT. PEMEX BUOY BMO IN THE SW BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS STILL MEASURING 9.0M SEAS JUST PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT...AND IS LIKELY THE ZONE OF HIGHEST SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DROP STEADILY THROUGH NOON TODAY...BEFORE SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP AT 15-20 KT ALONG THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTS OF S TEXAS AND MEXICO. STLT IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS BROKEN TO OVC LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE GULF W OF 94W AND WILL YIELD AREAS OF LOW CIGS AND SOME PATCHY FOG. DEEP LOW PRES AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION EXTENDING S-SW ACROSS THE ERN U.S. SAT WILL WEAKEN THE PREVAILING HIGH AND FORCE IT EWD OVER THE WEEKEND...INDUCING A MORE NE TO E MODERATE FLOW ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...AND CONTINUE THE SE FLOW ACROSS W PORTIONS. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND INTO E TEXAS MON IS BEING HANDLED DIFFERENTLY BY GLOBAL MODELS ACROSS THE GULF. A LLVL DISTURBANCE ACROSS NE MEXICO AND S TEXAS IS FORECAST TO MOVE E-NE ACROSS THE NRN GULF AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT MON AND TUE...AND IS DEPICTED AS A WEAK TROUGH BY THE GFS...A CLOSED LOW BY THE ECMWF...AND A NEGATIVE TILT TROUGH BY THE UKMET. SLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE WILL INCREASE TO 20 KT MON AND TUE...BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR BETTER CONSENSUS ON THIS FROM MODELS. SW N ATLC... COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ATLC FROM 25N65W TO ERN TIP OF CUBA HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TODAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE NW SAT AND SUN AS SELY LLVL FLOW INCREASES E OF 70W. THIS WILL MAINTAIN A NARROW ZONE OF 20-25 KT WINDS JUST N OF THE DRIFTING BOUNDARY WITH SEAS REMAINING 8-9 FT THROUGH SAT EVENING. WINDS AND SEAS OTHERWISE DIMINISHING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE AREA AS HIGH PRES RIDGE BEHIND FRONT WEAKENS AND WINDS VEER SLIGHTLY. NW SWELL WILL PEAK TONIGHT AND SAT ACROSS THE WATERS SURROUNDING THE NE CARIB...AND BLEED THROUGH THE CARIB PASSAGES...BEFORE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES AND ASSOCIATED E TO SE TRADE WIND SWELL BEGIN TO DOMINATE S AND SE PORTIONS MON AND TUE. SELY WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA MON NIGHT AND TUE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM ERN TIP OF CUBA IS SOMEWHAT DIFFUSE AND BEGINNING TO WASH OUT SOMEWHERE ALONG THE NE COAST OF HONDURAS. A 0222 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT N-NE WINDS DOMINATING THE NW CARIB NW OF THE FRONT...WITH A ZONE OF 25-30 KT BETWEEN FRONT AND 86W....WHERE SEAS ARE LIKELY NEAR 12 FT. FRESH TO STRONG E TO NE TRADES PERSIST ACROSS THE REST OF THE BASIN AND INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 17N. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE E CARIB AND TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS NEXT 24 HOURS BUT REMAIN NE 20-25 KT ACROSS THE SW CENTRAL CARIB AND NW OF THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL ZONE THROUGH SAT MORNING BEFORE DROPPING TO NEAR 20KT. HIGH PRES ACROSS THE ERN ATLC RIDGING SW TO NEAR 60W MON WILL FRESHEN THE TRADES ACROSS THE SRN CARIB AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC MON AND TUE. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING