000 AGXX40 KNHC 120711 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST WED JAN 12 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... A SOMEWHAT WEAK COLD FRONT LIES FROM 31N73W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA. THE 0128Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT N OF 29N. THIS SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ORIGINALLY SUPPORTING THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY BEING OVERTAKEN BY A PROGRESSIVE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL REINFORCE THE SURFACE FRONT BY MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY PICKING UP OVER NW WATERS WITH BUOY 41012 SHIFTING FROM WNW WINDS AT 16 KT AT 00Z TO NW WINDS AT 22 KT BY 03Z AS THE SURGE OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE IN. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG EASTWARD THROUGH THE ZONE THROUGH THU. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT OVER FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THU AND STALL THE FRONT OVER THE SE CORNER FRI/SAT. BY SUN...THE 00Z ECMWF DISSIPATED THE BOUNDARY WHILE THE GFS ALLOWS THE TAIL END TO RETROGRADE NW TROUGH THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ZONE. THE CMC AND NOGAPS AGREE WITH THE GFS WHILE THE 00Z UKMET IS MORE LIKE THE ECMWF WHICH ALSO BRING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTO NE WATERS SUN. FOR NOW...WILL SIDE WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION. TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CURRENTLY LIE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC ACCORDING TO THE 0124Z ASCAT PASS. STRONG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG 30N INTO THU...KEEPING THE WINDS UP AND THE SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE THROUGH THU. BY FRI...WINDS GET KNOCKED DOWN A NOTCH TO FRESH AS HIGH PRES MOVE OFF TO THE EASTERN ATLC...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO BE NORTHEASTERLY. WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE AGAIN ON SUN AS HIGH PRES MOVES E ALONG 30W BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 0124Z AND 0304Z ASCAT PASSES SHOWS STRONG TRADES OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY AND THU. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF AND SW N ATLC AT THE MOMENT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BY MORNING...BRINGING FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS TO MUCH OF THE NW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE DAY AND THROUGH FRI. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC EASTWARD ALONG 30N AND SLACKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN A NOTCH LATE THU THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS BY FRI AND WINDS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... A REINFORCING SURGE OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND COLD DRY AIR HAS MOVED ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF AND GIVEN NEW LIFE TO THE COLD FRONT OVER FAR S WATERS FROM THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH 22N89W AND TO THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE 0308Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF N TO NE WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH WINDS TO GALE FORCE ON THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE SWATH OFFSHORE OF TAMPICO MEXICO. THE 00Z GFS HAD A FEW BARBS TO GALE FORCE AT ITS INITIAL PERIOD BUT RAPIDLY DIMINISHED THE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY 03Z. THE 00Z GEFS CONTINUE TO SHOW NO CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW GULF TODAY WHILE THE 21Z SREFS CONTINUE TO SHOW AS HIGH AS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT SUPPORT A GALE NOR DOES THE GFS...SO WILL STICK WITH WINDS TO 30 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS WORDING FOR THE FORECAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND SAT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COLD AIR SURGE APPROACHES THE NE GULF AND TROUGHING BUILDS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH BRING THE RETURN FLOW TO 20 KT BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER