000 AGXX40 KNHC 110651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST TUE JAN 11 2011 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. SW N ATLC... THE 0150Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO 30 KT OVER NW WATERS AHEAD OF THE COASTAL LOW JUST N OF THE AREA AND ITS COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING THE AREA FROM 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL OF 06Z. THE SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WEAKENED AS IT MOVED THROUGH THE SE CONUS MON AND NOW LIES IN AN AREA OF LONGWAVE RIDGING. THIS RIDGING IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE EASTERN CONUS LATER TODAY INTO WED. THE COLD FRONT WILL DRAG EASTWARD THROUGH THE ZONE THROUGH THU WHILE THE ANCHOR LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL WAIT UNTIL IT IS WELL N OF THE AREA TO MEET UP WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO INTENSIFY TUE NIGHT/WED. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT OVER FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THU AND STALL THE FRONT OVER THE SE CORNER FRI/SAT. TROPICAL N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES CURRENTLY LIE OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF 19N ACCORDING TO THE 0144Z AND 0004Z ASCAT PASSES. STRONG HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD ALONG 30N INTO THU...KEEPING THE WINDS UP AND THE SEAS GENERALLY IN THE 8-12 FT RANGE THROUGH THU. BY FRI...WINDS GET KNOCKED DOWN A NOTCH TO FRESH AS HIGH PRES MOVE OFF TO THE EASTERN ATLC...BUT THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS WITH SWELL CONTINUING TO BE NORTHEASTERLY. THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT HERE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE 0146Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS STRONG TRADES OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND WINDS TO 30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. HIGH PRES CURRENTLY OVER THE SW N ATLC IS DRIVING THE TRADE WINDS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH JUST BELOW GALE FORCE IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA TODAY THROUGH THU. THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE GULF AND SW N ATLC AT THE MOMENT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...TURNING THE MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS CURRENTLY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN MORE NORTHERLY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THE HIGH PRES OVER THE SW N ATLC EASTWARD ALONG 30N AND SLACKEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN A NOTCH LATE THU THROUGH SAT. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY WED NIGHT AND INCREASE THE FRESH WINDS TO STRONG NE WINDS OVER FAR NW CARIBBEAN WED AFTERNOON/EVENING THROUGH FRI. THE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER CARIBBEAN WATERS FRI AND WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY SAT. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK COLD FRONT LIES FROM SARASOTA BAY TO 24N87W THEN IS STATIONARY TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS FRONT IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE SYSTEM ALOFT THAT WEAKENED AS IT MOVED THROUGH THE SE CONUS MON AND NOW LIES IN AN AREA OF LONGWAVE RIDGING. THIS RIDGING IS IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE PLAINS AND MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR TO THE GULF TODAY WITH 20-25 KT WINDS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH THU...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY TO NEAR GALE FORCE OVER THE FAR SW GULF.THE 00Z GEFS CONTINUES TO SHOWS NO CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS HERE WHILE THE 21Z SREFS SHOW A 40-50 PERCENT CHANCE PRIMARILY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WED. THE 00Z ECMWF DOES NOT CARRY GALE FORCE WINDS HERE...CAPPING THEM OFF AT 30 KT. THE UKMET HAS A VERY SMALL AREA OF WINDS TO GALE FORCE FROM 18Z-00Z WED AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS CARRIES A SINGLE BARB TO 35 KT JUST N OF TAMPICO 00Z WED AND ANOTHER SINGLE BARB TO 35 KT IN THE FAR WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 18Z. RIGHT NOW...THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ENOUGH MODEL SUPPORT TO HOIST A GALE FLAG AMONG THE MODELS...SO WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF FOR NOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRI AND SAT AS THE HIGH PRES CENTER APPROACHES THE NE GULF. WARNINGS.. ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER